Sport Picks
Match Events
40'
40'
Rodriguez D.
81'
81'
Fofana A.
AI Match Summary
The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 game between SP Villafranca and Villanovense finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
40%
29%
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
66%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and SP Villafranca come out ahead of Villanovense on wins alone.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
- Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- These two have met 4 times recently and Villanovense have taken 3 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
SP Villafranca Clean Sheet 17%
Villanovense Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | SP Villafranca | Villanovense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 14 | 12 |
| Draws | 6 | 7 |
| Losses | 10 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 2 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.75 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 2.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.75 | 1.38 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 1, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
SP Villafranca vs Villanovense
1:1
Oct 19, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Villanovense vs SP Villafranca
3:1
Apr 27, 2008 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
SP Villafranca vs Villanovense
0:4
Dec 2, 2007 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Villanovense vs SP Villafranca
6:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
SP Villafranca Compare
Top Goalscorer Rodriguez D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Villanovense Compare
Top Goalscorer Fofana A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
SP Villafranca 31 / 100
Villanovense 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
SP Villafranca Villanovense
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: SP Villafranca scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.
These sides typically produce 4.25 goals when they meet.
Villanovense has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.
SP Villafranca went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
SP Villafranca VS Villanovense
1.38 Goals Scored 2
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
SP Villafranca
(Home) 10 May
CD Diocesano
4 : 4 SP Villafranca
03 May
SP Villafranca
2 : 1 Jerez CF
26 Apr
SP Villafranca
1 : 0 Don Benito
19 Apr
Santa Amalia
0 : 2 SP Villafranca
12 Apr
SP Villafranca
0 : 2 CD Azuaga
Page 1 of 6
03 May
SP Villafranca
2 : 1 Jerez CF
26 Apr
SP Villafranca
1 : 0 Don Benito
12 Apr
SP Villafranca
0 : 2 CD Azuaga
29 Mar
SP Villafranca
1 : 0 CD Calamonte
15 Mar
SP Villafranca
2 : 1 Jaraiz
Page 1 of 3
Villanovense
(Away) 10 May
Villanovense
0 : 1 Jaraiz
03 May
Montehermoso
0 : 3 Villanovense
26 Apr
Villanovense
2 : 0 Jerez CF
19 Apr
Villanovense
3 : 2 Cabeza del Buey
12 Apr
AD Llerenense
0 : 2 Villanovense
Page 1 of 6
03 May
Montehermoso
0 : 3 Villanovense
12 Apr
AD Llerenense
0 : 2 Villanovense
28 Mar
Pueblonuevo
2 : 0 Villanovense
15 Mar
Moralo
3 : 0 Villanovense
01 Mar
SP Villafranca
1 : 1 Villanovense
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Don Benito | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 70:22 | 71 |
| 2 | CD Badajoz | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 64:27 | 71 |
| 3 | Moralo | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 54:32 | 62 |
| 4 | CD Azuaga | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 53:31 | 62 |
| 5 | Jaraiz | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 53:33 | 59 |
| 6 | Cabeza del Buey | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 45:29 | 57 |
| 7 | SP Villafranca | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 45:40 | 55 |
| 8 | Villanovense | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 45:36 | 53 |
| 9 | Montijo | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 43:42 | 46 |
| 10 | Jerez CF | 34 | 8 | 17 | 9 | 56:51 | 41 |
| 11 | AD Llerenense | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 35:44 | 41 |
| 12 | Puebla de la Calzada | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35:48 | 38 |
| 13 | Santa Amalia | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 30:52 | 34 |
| 14 | Gevora | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 32:53 | 33 |
| 15 | Pueblonuevo | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 29:55 | 33 |
| 16 | CD Diocesano | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 33:63 | 30 |
| 17 | Montehermoso | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 24:66 | 23 |
| 18 | CD Calamonte | 34 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 25:47 | 22 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 (Play Offs)