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Spain W vs Sweden W Prediction & H2H Stats

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League Women Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga
Our Tip

Match Events

10'
Angeldal F.
11' Event
Putellas A.
27'
Sub
Paralluelo S. In: Pina C.
Out: Paralluelo S.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. This leg finished 4-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
Spain W
20%
Draws
24%
Sweden W
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Spain W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Spain W lately — more wins on the board than Sweden W.
  • 56% — that's where the model lands on Spain W taking it.
  • Spain W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Spain W, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Spain W have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Spain W Clean Sheet 20%
Sweden W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spain W Sweden W
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 24 15
Draws 3 7
Losses 5 7
Goals Scored 2.84 2.03
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 28, 2025 UEFA Nations League Women
Sweden W vs Spain W
0:1
Oct 24, 2025 UEFA Nations League Women
Spain W vs Sweden W
4:0
Dec 5, 2023 UEFA Nations League Women
Spain W vs Sweden W
5:3
Sep 22, 2023 UEFA Nations League Women
Sweden W vs Spain W
2:3
Aug 15, 2023 World Cup Women
Spain W vs Sweden W
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Spain W Compare

Top Goalscorer Putellas A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Pina C.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Sweden W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spain W 85 / 100
Sweden W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spain W Sweden W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spain W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Spain W scored in 88% of their last 32 outings.

These sides typically produce 4.20 goals when they meet.

Spain W went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Sweden W's defensive record shows goals conceded in 52% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Spain W VS Sweden W
2.38 Goals Scored 0.75
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Spain W

(Home)
09 Jun
Iceland W
1 : 6
Spain W
05 Jun
Spain W
4 : 0
England W
18 Apr
Spain W
5 : 0
Ukraine W
14 Apr
England W
1 : 0
Spain W
07 Mar
Ukraine W
1 : 3
Spain W
Page 1 of 7

Sweden W

(Away)
09 Jun
Sweden W
2 : 2
Italy W
05 Jun
Denmark W
2 : 1
Sweden W
18 Apr
Sweden W
1 : 0
Serbia W
14 Apr
Sweden W
1 : 2
Denmark W
07 Mar
Serbia W
0 : 0
Sweden W
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Germany W 3
France W 2
Spain W 5
Sweden W 0
Final
Germany W 0
Spain W 3
France W 4
Sweden W 3