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Spal vs AC Milan U23 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group A 2024/2025 Stadio Paolo Mazza, Ferrara
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Molina J. I.
24'
Awua T.
37' Event
Molina J. I.

AI Match Summary

Spal in this Serie C - Group A 2024/2025 tie, finishing 2-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Spal
20%
Draws
48%
AC Milan U23
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AC Milan U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Spal haven't matched AC Milan U23's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Spal's way, sitting at 50%.
  • AC Milan U23 arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor AC Milan U23, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors AC Milan U23 here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Spal Clean Sheet 68%
AC Milan U23 Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spal AC Milan U23
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 16
Draws 10 5
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.07 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.30
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2025 Serie C - Group A
Spal vs AC Milan U23
2:0
May 10, 2025 Serie C - Group A
AC Milan U23 vs Spal
1:0
Feb 1, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Spal vs AC Milan U23
1:2
Sep 26, 2024 Serie C - Group B
AC Milan U23 vs Spal
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Spal Compare

Top Goalscorer Molina J. I.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

AC Milan U23 Compare

Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.72

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spal 59 / 100
AC Milan U23 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spal AC Milan U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spal Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AC Milan U23 has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Attacking prowess: Spal scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.25 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Spal remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS AC Milan U23
0 Goals Scored 1.5
0 Goals Conceded 0.75
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Spal

(Home)
17 May
Spal
2 : 0
AC Milan U23
10 May
AC Milan U23
1 : 0
Spal
27 Apr
Spal
3 : 0
Gubbio
23 Apr
Vis Pesaro
1 : 1
Spal
12 Apr
Spal
1 : 1
US Pontedera
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AC Milan U23

(Away)
20 Sept
Villa Valle
1 : 2
AC Milan U23
16 Sept
AC Milan U23
2 : 1
Brusaporto
12 Sept
Pro Palazzolo
2 : 0
AC Milan U23
06 Sept
AC Milan U23
4 : 3
Caldiero Terme
02 Sept
Everton U21
1 : 2
AC Milan U23
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Caldiero Terme 0
Triestina 0
Pro Patria 1
Pro Vercelli 1
AC Milan U23 1
Spal 2
Sestri Levante 2
Lucchese 2
ACR Messina 0
Foggia 1