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Spalding United vs Southport - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

National League North
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Cybulski B.
75' Event
Straughan-Brown S.

AI Match Summary

The National League North game between Spalding United and Southport finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Spalding United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Spalding United
20%
Draws
29%
Southport
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Spalding United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Southport haven't matched Spalding United's recent run of results.
  • Spalding United are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular National League North form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Spalding United Clean Sheet 20%
Southport Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spalding United Southport
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 14 12
Draws 7 4
Losses 7 13
Goals Scored 1.79 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.11 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 0.76
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 National League North
Spalding United vs Southport
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Spalding United Compare

Top Goalscorer Cybulski B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Straughan-Brown S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Southport Compare

Avg xG / game 0.69
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spalding United 76 / 100
Southport 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spalding United Southport

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spalding United Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Southport let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Spalding United's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Spalding United went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Spalding United VS Southport
1.88 Goals Scored 0.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Spalding United

(Home)
10 Oct
Marine
1 : 0
Spalding United
06 Oct
Spalding United
4 : 0
Bury Town
03 Oct
Bury Town
1 : 1
Spalding United
26 Sept
Chorley
2 : 1
Spalding United
19 Sept
Spalding United
2 : 0
Hanley Town
Page 1 of 6

Southport

(Away)
10 Oct
Harborough
1 : 0
Southport
26 Sept
Southport
2 : 2
Spennymoor
19 Sept
Morecambe
2 : 0
Southport
12 Sept
Worksop
2 : 0
Southport
08 Sept
Southport
2 : 1
Morecambe
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Macclesfield 11 7 3 1 17:9 24
2 Hereford 11 7 2 2 22:6 23
3 Oxford City 11 7 2 2 21:7 23
4 Chester 11 6 2 3 14:9 20
5 South Shields 11 6 2 3 18:17 20
6 King’s Lynn 11 6 1 4 21:15 19
7 Hebburn Town 11 5 3 3 16:19 18
8 Spalding United 11 5 2 4 14:9 17
9 Chorley 11 5 2 4 18:18 17
10 Buxton 11 5 1 5 18:19 16
11 Bedford 11 5 1 5 14:15 16
12 Hednesford 11 4 3 4 18:17 15
13 Marine 11 5 0 6 13:12 15
14 Harborough 11 4 3 4 11:12 15
15 Worksop 11 5 0 6 12:17 15
16 Brackley 11 4 3 4 13:20 15
17 Morecambe 11 4 2 5 15:11 14
18 Merthyr Town 11 3 5 3 13:12 14
19 Scarborough Athletic 11 3 3 5 16:16 12
20 Southport 11 2 3 6 13:21 9
21 Radcliffe 11 3 0 8 13:21 9
22 Telford 11 2 3 6 9:17 9
23 Darlington FC 11 2 2 7 13:22 8
24 Spennymoor 11 1 4 6 12:23 7
Promotion - National League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)