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Sparta-KT vs Chernomorets Sevastopol

Europe Europe

Premier League (Crimea) 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sparta-KT play Chernomorets Sevastopol in the Premier League (Crimea) 2023. Chernomorets Sevastopol are favorites here. Recently, Sparta-KT averaged 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded. Chernomorets Sevastopol averaged 1.08 goals scored and 2.12 conceded. In past meetings, Sparta-KT won 1, Chernomorets Sevastopol won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Oct 28, 2023 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Sparta-KT and 1.00 for Chernomorets Sevastopol. This points to a Chernomorets Sevastopol double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%
Sparta-KT
25%
Draws
60%
Chernomorets Sevastopol
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Chernomorets Sevastopol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Sparta-KT picked up more points recently compared to Chernomorets Sevastopol.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 76%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
Sparta-KT Clean Sheet 23%
Chernomorets Sevastopol Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sparta-KT Chernomorets Sevastopol
Matches Played 34 25
Wins 10 7
Draws 7 5
Losses 17 13
Goals Scored 1.29 1.08
Goals Conceded 1.71 2.12
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 3.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 28, 2023 Premier League (Crimea)
Sparta-KT vs Chernomorets Sevastopol
0:3
Oct 18, 2023 Premier League (Crimea)
Chernomorets Sevastopol vs Sparta-KT
2:2
May 13, 2023 Premier League (Crimea)
Sparta-KT vs Chernomorets Sevastopol
0:0
Mar 26, 2023 Premier League (Crimea)
Chernomorets Sevastopol vs Sparta-KT
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sparta-KT Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Chernomorets Sevastopol Compare

Top Goalscorer Morgoev V.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Gafarov A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sparta-KT 18 / 100
Chernomorets Sevastopol 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sparta-KT Chernomorets Sevastopol

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chernomorets Sevastopol Win (2)
Secondary Pick Chernomorets Sevastopol & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +114.3%
14.29
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.79
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sparta-KT attacking → ← attacking Chernomorets Sevastopol

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sparta-KT scored in 71% of their last 34 games.

Chernomorets Sevastopol let in goals in 72% of their last 25 matches.

Games between these two average 2.25 goals.

Sparta-KT went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Chernomorets Sevastopol lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 26
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 3.00