Sport Picks
Sparta Prague vs AZ Alkmaar
Europe
Conference League 2025/2026 epet ARENA, Prague 
Match Events
8'
8'
Jensen I.
Assist: Smit K.
53'
53'
Mijnans S.
54'
54'
Sub
Irving A. In: Haraslin L.
Out: Irving A.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 0-4, with AZ Alkmaar advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
46%
15%
39%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sparta Prague
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
46%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Sparta Prague come out ahead of AZ Alkmaar on wins alone.
- 46% — that's where the model lands on Sparta Prague taking it.
- Sparta Prague have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor AZ Alkmaar, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Sparta Prague Clean Sheet 10%
AZ Alkmaar Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sparta Prague | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 18 | 16 |
| Draws | 1 | 8 |
| Losses | 10 | 5 |
| Goals Scored | 2 | 2.21 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.24 | 1.14 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 19, 2026 Conference League
Sparta Prague vs AZ Alkmaar
0:4
Mar 12, 2026 Conference League
AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Prague
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Sparta Prague Compare
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
AZ Alkmaar Compare
Top Goalscorer Jensen I.
1 Goals Assists Leader Parrott T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sparta Prague 74 / 100
AZ Alkmaar 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sparta Prague AZ Alkmaar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Sparta Prague Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.50 goals when they meet.
Attacking prowess: Sparta Prague scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.
Defensive concern: AZ Alkmaar conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.
Sparta Prague went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Sparta Prague VS AZ Alkmaar
2 Goals Scored 2.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Sparta Prague
(Home) 20 Sept
Sigma Olomouc
0 : 3 Sparta Prague
16 Sept
Ararat-Armenia
1 : 4 Sparta Prague
12 Sept
Sparta Prague
2 : 0 Jablonec
09 Sept
Zizkov
0 : 5 Sparta Prague
06 Sept
Hradec Kralove
2 : 1 Sparta Prague
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Sparta Prague
2 : 0 Jablonec
30 Aug
Sparta Prague
0 : 3 Slavia Prague
15 Aug
Sparta Prague
4 : 1 Teplice
04 Aug
Sparta Prague
2 : 1 Lyon
31 Jul
Sparta Prague
3 : 1 Zlin
Page 1 of 3
AZ Alkmaar
(Away) 20 Sept
AZ Alkmaar
1 : 0 Telstar
16 Sept
Sunderland
1 : 0 AZ Alkmaar
11 Sept
AZ Alkmaar
1 : 1 Willem II
06 Sept
Heerenveen
2 : 3 AZ Alkmaar
29 Aug
AZ Alkmaar
5 : 2 G.A. Eagles
Page 1 of 6
16 Sept
Sunderland
1 : 0 AZ Alkmaar
06 Sept
Heerenveen
2 : 3 AZ Alkmaar
22 Aug
Sittard
0 : 2 AZ Alkmaar
15 Aug
Utrecht
1 : 4 AZ Alkmaar
02 Aug
PSV
0 : 4 AZ Alkmaar
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
KuPS 0
Lech Poznan 3
Shakhtar -
TBD -
Noah 1
AZ Alkmaar 4
Sparta Prague -
TBD -
Zrinjski 1
Crystal Palace 3
AEK Larnaca -
TBD -
Jagiellonia 4
Fiorentina 5
Rakow Czestochowa -
TBD -
Shkendija Tetovo 0
Samsunspor 5
Rayo Vallecano -
TBD -
Drita 4
Celje 6
AEK -
TBD -
Sigma Olomouc 3
Lausanne 2
Mainz -
TBD -
Omonia 1
Rijeka 4
Strasbourg -
TBD -
1/8-finals
Lech Poznan 3
Shakhtar 4
AZ Alkmaar 6
Sparta Prague 1
Crystal Palace 2
AEK Larnaca 1
Fiorentina 4
Rakow Czestochowa 2
Samsunspor 2
Rayo Vallecano 3
Celje 2
AEK 4
Sigma Olomouc 0
Mainz 2
Rijeka 2
Strasbourg 3
Quarter-finals
Shakhtar 5
AZ Alkmaar 2
Crystal Palace 4
Fiorentina 2
Rayo Vallecano 4
AEK 3
Mainz 2
Strasbourg 4
Semi-finals
Shakhtar 2
Crystal Palace 5
Rayo Vallecano 2
Strasbourg 0
Final
Crystal Palace 1
Rayo Vallecano 0
