Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow

Russia Russia

Russian Cup 2025/2026 Lukoil Arena, Moscow
Spartak Moscow Logo

Spartak Moscow

1 - 0
FT
CSKA Moscow Logo

CSKA Moscow

Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Litvinov R.
Assist: Costa Martins J. M.
22'
Danilov K.
40'
Litvinov R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Spartak Moscow in this Russian Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Spartak Moscow
17%
Draws
13%
CSKA Moscow
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Spartak Moscow

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Spartak Moscow have won more games recently than CSKA Moscow.
  • Win probability leans Spartak Moscow's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Spartak Moscow have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Spartak Moscow, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Spartak Moscow Clean Sheet 20%
CSKA Moscow Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spartak Moscow CSKA Moscow
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 17 10
Draws 5 6
Losses 7 13
Goals Scored 1.13 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 6, 2026 Russian Cup
Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow
1:0
Nov 22, 2025 Premier League
Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow
1:0
Oct 5, 2025 Premier League
CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow
3:2
Apr 26, 2025 Premier League
Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow
1:2
Nov 2, 2024 Premier League
CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Spartak Moscow Compare

Top Goalscorer Litvinov R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

CSKA Moscow Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spartak Moscow 67 / 100
CSKA Moscow 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spartak Moscow CSKA Moscow

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SPA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Spartak Moscow's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

CSKA Moscow's defensive record shows goals conceded in 97% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Spartak Moscow stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Spartak Moscow VS CSKA Moscow
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Spartak Moscow

(Home)
18 Jul
Zenit St Petersburg
2 : 1
Spartak Moscow
11 Jul
Lokomotiv Moscow
2 : 0
Spartak Moscow
08 Jul
Spartak Moscow
0 : 0
Rubin Kazan
04 Jul
Spartak Moscow
3 : 2
Krylya Sovetov Samara
02 Jul
Spartak Moscow
1 : 0
S. Kostroma
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CSKA Moscow

(Away)
18 Jul
Dynamo Moscow
5 : 2
CSKA Moscow
14 Jul
Lokomotiv Moscow
1 : 0
CSKA Moscow
11 Jul
Orenburg
2 : 2
CSKA Moscow
11 Jul
Orenburg
2 : 0
CSKA Moscow
04 Jul
CSKA Moscow
1 : 1
Arsenal Tula
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Torpedo Moscow0
Baltika2
TBD-
Zenit St Petersburg-
Neftekhimik1
FK Rostov3
TBD-
Dynamo Makhachkala-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Spartak Moscow-
Kamaz1
Krylya Sovetov Samara2
TBD-
Orenburg-
Arsenal Tula1
Rubin Kazan0
TBD-
Lokomotiv Moscow-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
CSKA Moscow-
1/8-finals
Baltika0
Zenit St Petersburg1
FK Rostov0
Dynamo Makhachkala2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Spartak Moscow-
Krylya Sovetov Samara2
Orenburg0
Arsenal Tula1
Lokomotiv Moscow2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
CSKA Moscow-
Quarter-finals
Zenit St Petersburg1
Dynamo Makhachkala0
TBD-
Spartak Moscow-
Krylya Sovetov Samara3
Lokomotiv Moscow2
TBD-
CSKA Moscow-
Semi-finals
Zenit St Petersburg0
Spartak Moscow1
Krylya Sovetov Samara2
CSKA Moscow5
Final
Spartak Moscow1
CSKA Moscow0