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Spartak Plovdiv vs Sozopol

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - South-East
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AI Match Summary

The Third League - South-East game between Spartak Plovdiv and Sozopol finished 4-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Spartak Plovdiv.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Spartak Plovdiv
15%
Draws
31%
Sozopol
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Spartak Plovdiv

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Spartak Plovdiv carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 54% — that's where the model lands on Spartak Plovdiv taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Spartak Plovdiv have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Spartak Plovdiv Clean Sheet 13%
Sozopol Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spartak Plovdiv Sozopol
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 17 14
Draws 2 5
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 2.14 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.86 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Third League - South-East
Spartak Plovdiv vs Sozopol
4:3
Apr 9, 2026 Third League - South-East
Spartak Plovdiv vs Sozopol
2:1
Oct 1, 2025 Third League - South-East
Sozopol vs Spartak Plovdiv
0:0
Mar 15, 2025 Third League - South-East
Spartak Plovdiv vs Sozopol
2:0
Aug 30, 2024 Third League - South-East
Sozopol vs Spartak Plovdiv
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spartak Plovdiv 39 / 100
Sozopol 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spartak Plovdiv Sozopol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spartak Plovdiv Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Spartak Plovdiv found the back of the net in 89% of recent matches (28 games).

Sozopol let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Spartak Plovdiv has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Spartak Plovdiv VS Sozopol
2.5 Goals Scored 2.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Spartak Plovdiv

(Home)
04 Oct
Spartak Plovdiv
1 : 0
Botev Ihtiman
26 Sept
Spartak Plovdiv
2 : 0
Rodopa Smolyan
19 Sept
Spartak Plovdiv
1 : 4
Gigant Saedinenie
12 Sept
Maritsa Plovdiv
0 : 2
Spartak Plovdiv
05 Sept
Spartak Plovdiv
2 : 0
Rozova Dolina
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Sozopol

(Away)
03 Oct
Maritsa Milevo
4 : 2
Sozopol
26 Sept
Sozopol
3 : 2
Sekirovo Rakovski
18 Sept
Botev II
0 : 0
Sozopol
12 Sept
Sozopol
4 : 2
Neftochimic Burgas
05 Sept
Atletik Kuklen
1 : 0
Sozopol
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Krumovgrad 8 8 0 0 26:7 24
2 Maritsa Milevo 9 7 0 2 21:11 21
3 Spartak Plovdiv 8 7 0 1 20:10 21
4 OFC Haskovo 8 5 2 1 15:6 17
5 Yambol 1915 8 5 1 2 24:9 16
6 Gigant Saedinenie 8 4 1 3 17:14 13
7 Neftochimic Burgas 8 4 1 3 15:12 13
8 Sozopol 9 4 1 4 19:17 13
9 Rozova Dolina 9 2 6 1 14:13 12
10 Rodopa Smolyan 8 3 2 3 13:14 11
11 Zagorets 8 3 1 4 10:15 10
12 Botev II 8 2 3 3 13:15 9
13 Dimitrovgrad 9 2 2 5 12:16 8
14 Lok. Plovdiv II 8 2 1 5 10:21 7
15 Atletik Kuklen 9 2 1 6 10:22 7
16 Sekirovo Rakovski 8 1 2 5 13:24 5
17 Levski Karlovo 8 1 0 7 5:19 3
18 Maritsa Plovdiv 9 0 2 7 5:17 2
Promotion - Vtora liga (Main)