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Spartak Varna vs Lok. Plovdiv - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Bulgaria Bulgaria

efbet League Stadion Spartak, Varna
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Valverde D.
31'
Ivanov I.
50'
Yordanov D.

AI Match Summary

The efbet League game between Spartak Varna and Lok. Plovdiv finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Spartak Varna.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Spartak Varna
35%
Draws
45%
Lok. Plovdiv
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lok. Plovdiv

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Lok. Plovdiv carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Lok. Plovdiv a 45% chance of winning this.
  • Regular efbet League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Spartak Varna Clean Sheet 22%
Lok. Plovdiv Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spartak Varna Lok. Plovdiv
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 8 12
Draws 8 4
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 1.1 1
Goals Conceded 1.52 0.96
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 3, 2026 efbet League
Spartak Varna vs Lok. Plovdiv
1:0
Feb 21, 2026 efbet League
Lok. Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna
1:1
Aug 30, 2025 efbet League
Spartak Varna vs Lok. Plovdiv
1:2
Apr 7, 2025 efbet League
Lok. Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna
1:2
Oct 23, 2024 efbet League
Spartak Varna vs Lok. Plovdiv
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Spartak Varna Compare

Top Goalscorer Valverde D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Lok. Plovdiv Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spartak Varna 16 / 100
Lok. Plovdiv 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spartak Varna Lok. Plovdiv

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lok. Plovdiv Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Spartak Varna found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

Lok. Plovdiv's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Spartak Varna went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Spartak Varna VS Lok. Plovdiv
0.63 Goals Scored 0.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Spartak Varna

(Home)
20 Sept
Spartak Varna
0 : 1
Lok. Sofia
13 Sept
Slavia Sofia
0 : 0
Spartak Varna
05 Sept
Spartak Varna
1 : 1
CSKA Sofia
30 Aug
Spartak Varna
1 : 1
Ludogorets
22 Aug
Levski Sofia
6 : 0
Spartak Varna
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Lok. Plovdiv

(Away)
02 Oct
Lok. Plovdiv
2 : 0
Arda
20 Sept
Lok. Plovdiv
1 : 1
CSKA Sofia
13 Sept
Botev Plovdiv
2 : 0
Lok. Plovdiv
06 Sept
Lok. Plovdiv
1 : 0
Cherno More
28 Aug
CSKA 1948 Sofia
2 : 0
Lok. Plovdiv
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Levski Sofia 9 8 1 0 21:4 25
2 CSKA Sofia 10 7 3 0 24:7 24
3 Ludogorets 9 7 2 0 16:7 23
4 CSKA 1948 Sofia 10 7 1 2 19:10 22
5 Arda 10 5 2 3 15:12 17
6 Botev Plovdiv 10 5 1 4 16:14 16
7 Slavia Sofia 10 2 5 3 9:8 11
8 Spartak Varna 10 2 4 4 10:15 10
9 Botev Vratsa 10 2 3 5 9:19 9
10 Septemvri Sofia 10 2 2 6 8:18 8
11 Lok. Sofia 10 1 4 5 11:18 7
12 Lok. Plovdiv 10 2 1 7 5:13 7
13 Cherno More 10 1 3 6 11:20 6
14 Dunav Ruse 10 1 2 7 10:19 5
Promotion - efbet League (Championship Group)
Promotion - efbet League (Conference League Group)
Relegation - efbet League (Relegation Group)