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Spartans vs Dumbarton - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

League Two Ainslie Park, Edinburgh
Sat, Nov 21, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Spartans host Dumbarton in the League Two. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Spartans at 1.57 goals for, 1.61 against; Dumbarton at 1.21 for, 2.31 against. Past meetings favor Dumbarton slightly — 2-3-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 19, 2026, ending 3:0. The numbers (1.56 xG vs 1.50) point toward Spartans. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Spartans
20%
Draws
40%
Dumbarton
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Dumbarton have managed 1.21 goals a game lately — Spartans are scoring more at 1.57.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Spartans taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Spartans Clean Sheet 16%
Dumbarton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spartans Dumbarton
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 9 9
Draws 9 3
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 1.57 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.61 2.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 League Two
Dumbarton vs Spartans
3:0
Mar 7, 2026 League Two
Dumbarton vs Spartans
3:0
Jan 3, 2026 League Two
Spartans vs Dumbarton
2:0
Oct 18, 2025 League Two
Dumbarton vs Spartans
1:2
Aug 9, 2025 League Two
Spartans vs Dumbarton
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spartans 57 / 100
Dumbarton 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spartans Dumbarton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spartans Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dumbarton's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 29 matches.

Spartans found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Spartans went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Spartans VS Dumbarton
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Spartans

(Home)
24 Oct
Lochee United
1 : 2
Spartans
17 Oct
Spartans
0 : 2
Stranraer
13 Oct
Spartans
1 : 1
Bonnyrigg Rose
10 Oct
Edinburgh City
1 : 3
Spartans
03 Oct
Spartans
0 : 2
Kelty Hearts
Page 1 of 6

Dumbarton

(Away)
24 Oct
Dumbarton
1 : 0
Keith
17 Oct
Dumbarton
1 : 1
Stirling
13 Oct
Clydebank FC
4 : 0
Dumbarton
10 Oct
Clyde
2 : 1
Dumbarton
03 Oct
Dumbarton
2 : 1
Forfar Athletic
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Stranraer 11 7 2 2 25:9 23
2 Clyde 11 7 2 2 27:18 23
3 Elgin City 11 5 3 3 27:17 18
4 Spartans 11 4 3 4 22:20 15
5 Kelty Hearts 11 5 0 6 16:21 15
6 Dumbarton 11 4 1 6 12:18 13
7 Stirling 11 3 3 5 14:24 12
8 Edinburgh City 11 4 4 3 20:18 11
9 Forfar Athletic 11 3 2 6 11:19 11
10 Annan 11 3 0 8 11:21 9
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League One (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two (Relegation - Play Offs)