Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Spennymoor vs Chorley

England England

National League North 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Ramshaw R.

AI Match Summary

Spennymoor in this National League North 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Spennymoor.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Spennymoor
30%
Draws
12%
Chorley
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Spennymoor

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Spennymoor have won more games recently than Chorley.
  • Spennymoor are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular National League North 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Spennymoor Clean Sheet 20%
Chorley Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spennymoor Chorley
Matches Played 27 26
Wins 11 6
Draws 5 6
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.3 0.96
Goals Conceded 1.44 1.35
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 24, 2026 National League North
Spennymoor vs Chorley
1:0
Nov 25, 2025 National League North
Chorley vs Spennymoor
0:0
Mar 29, 2025 National League North
Chorley vs Spennymoor
4:0
Oct 26, 2024 National League North
Spennymoor vs Chorley
1:2
Sep 28, 2024 FA Cup
Spennymoor vs Chorley
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Spennymoor Compare

Top Goalscorer Ramshaw R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Chorley Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spennymoor 58 / 100
Chorley 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spennymoor Chorley

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spennymoor Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 5:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chorley's defensive record shows goals conceded in 88% of 26 matches.

Spennymoor found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (27 games).

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Spennymoor stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Spennymoor VS Chorley
1 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Spennymoor

(Home)
08 Aug
Morecambe
1 : 1
Spennymoor
01 Aug
Spennymoor
2 : 1
Gateshead
25 Jul
Spennymoor
1 : 3
Halifax
18 Jul
Spennymoor
1 : 2
Hartlepool
25 Apr
Spennymoor
1 : 1
Marine
Page 1 of 6

Chorley

(Away)
08 Aug
Chorley
1 : 2
Chester
28 Jul
Trafford
2 : 1
Chorley
25 Jul
Chorley
0 : 3
Accrington
21 Jul
Chorley
0 : 0
Altrincham
11 Jul
Chorley
1 : 2
Bury FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AFC Fylde 46 32 4 10 112:51 100
2 South Shields 46 28 11 7 99:43 95
3 Kidderminster 46 25 12 9 74:51 87
4 Macclesfield 46 24 7 15 81:68 79
5 Buxton 46 22 7 17 83:61 73
6 Scarborough Athletic 46 19 16 11 61:52 73
7 Chester 46 20 13 13 66:64 73
8 Merthyr Town 46 22 4 20 95:86 70
9 Darlington FC 46 20 9 17 78:68 69
10 Spennymoor 46 19 11 16 62:69 68
11 Telford 46 17 14 15 85:65 65
12 Marine 46 18 8 20 62:72 62
13 Radcliffe 46 18 6 22 76:83 60
14 Southport 46 16 12 18 64:71 60
15 Chorley 46 15 12 19 66:65 57
16 Worksop 46 16 9 21 66:74 57
17 Oxford City 46 15 11 20 62:67 56
18 Bedford 46 13 14 19 66:77 53
19 King’s Lynn 46 12 16 18 56:64 52
20 Hereford 46 14 10 22 64:79 52
21 Curzon Ashton 46 13 13 20 67:88 52
22 Alfreton 46 12 14 20 49:82 50
23 Peterborough Sports 46 10 9 27 51:96 39
24 Leamington 46 7 8 31 41:90 29
Promotion - National League (Main)
Promotion - National League North 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League North 2025/2026 (Play Offs)