Sport Picks
Spennymoor vs Merthyr Town - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
England
National League North 
Match Events
45'
45'
Spiers W.
60'
60'
Simpson K.
88'
88'
Taylor G.
AI Match Summary
Spennymoor in this National League North matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Spennymoor.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
35%
25%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Spennymoor
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Spennymoor lately — more wins on the board than Merthyr Town.
- 40% — that's where the model lands on Spennymoor taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Spennymoor have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Spennymoor Clean Sheet 16%
Merthyr Town Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Spennymoor | Merthyr Town |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 8 |
| Draws | 8 | 7 |
| Losses | 11 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 1.45 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.4 | 1.62 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 15, 2026 National League North
Spennymoor vs Merthyr Town
2:1
Mar 14, 2026 National League North
Merthyr Town vs Spennymoor
2:3
Oct 18, 2025 National League North
Spennymoor vs Merthyr Town
6:4
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Spennymoor Compare
Top Goalscorer Taylor G.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Merthyr Town Compare
Top Goalscorer Simpson K.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Spennymoor 84 / 100
Merthyr Town 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Spennymoor Merthyr Town
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Spennymoor Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 5:3
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Spennymoor found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).
Defensive concern: Merthyr Town conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.
H2H data points to 6.00 goals as a typical output.
Spennymoor has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Spennymoor VS Merthyr Town
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
2 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 25%
63% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Spennymoor
(Home) 03 Oct
Spennymoor
4 : 1 Chester
26 Sept
Southport
2 : 2 Spennymoor
19 Sept
AFC Emley
0 : 4 Spennymoor
12 Sept
Spennymoor
1 : 1 Macclesfield
08 Sept
Spennymoor
1 : 3 Spalding United
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Spennymoor
4 : 1 Chester
12 Sept
Spennymoor
1 : 1 Macclesfield
08 Sept
Spennymoor
1 : 3 Spalding United
31 Aug
Spennymoor
1 : 1 Hednesford
22 Aug
Spennymoor
1 : 4 Oxford City
Page 1 of 4
Merthyr Town
(Away) 26 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 2 Marine
22 Sept
Truro
2 : 0 Merthyr Town
19 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Truro
12 Sept
Scarborough Athletic
0 : 0 Merthyr Town
08 Sept
Chester
0 : 1 Merthyr Town
Page 1 of 6
22 Sept
Truro
2 : 0 Merthyr Town
12 Sept
Scarborough Athletic
0 : 0 Merthyr Town
08 Sept
Chester
0 : 1 Merthyr Town
31 Aug
Buxton
2 : 1 Merthyr Town
22 Aug
South Shields
1 : 1 Merthyr Town
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22:5 | 23 |
| 2 | Macclesfield | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13:6 | 21 |
| 3 | Oxford City | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18:7 | 20 |
| 4 | South Shields | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15:13 | 20 |
| 5 | Hebburn Town | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16:16 | 18 |
| 6 | Spalding United | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14:8 | 17 |
| 7 | Chester | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13:9 | 17 |
| 8 | King’s Lynn | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20:15 | 16 |
| 9 | Buxton | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18:18 | 16 |
| 10 | Bedford | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14:14 | 16 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14:9 | 14 |
| 12 | Chorley | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16:17 | 14 |
| 13 | Merthyr Town | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12:11 | 13 |
| 14 | Scarborough Athletic | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:12 | 12 |
| 15 | Hednesford | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17:17 | 12 |
| 16 | Marine | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12:12 | 12 |
| 17 | Harborough | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10:12 | 12 |
| 18 | Worksop | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10:16 | 12 |
| 19 | Brackley | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11:19 | 12 |
| 20 | Southport | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13:20 | 9 |
| 21 | Telford | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8:15 | 9 |
| 22 | Darlington FC | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 12:21 | 7 |
| 23 | Spennymoor | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11:21 | 7 |
| 24 | Radcliffe | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 9:20 | 6 |
Promotion - National League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)
