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Spezia vs Livorno - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group B Stadio Alberto Picco, La Spezia
Our Tip

Match Events

43'
Sapola M.
45'
Arrigoni T.
52' Event
Mazzocchi S.
Assist: Cardinali A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie C - Group B game between Spezia and Livorno finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Spezia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Spezia
15%
Draws
27%
Livorno
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Spezia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Spezia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Spezia are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Serie C - Group B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Spezia have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Spezia Clean Sheet 68%
Livorno Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spezia Livorno
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 13 12
Draws 8 7
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 1.69 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Serie C - Group B
Spezia vs Livorno
2:0
Jul 13, 2020 Serie B
Livorno vs Spezia
0:1
Dec 7, 2019 Serie B
Spezia vs Livorno
2:0
Feb 27, 2019 Serie B
Spezia vs Livorno
3:0
Oct 7, 2018 Serie B
Livorno vs Spezia
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Spezia Compare

Top Goalscorer Mazzocchi S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Capomaggio G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Livorno Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spezia 95 / 100
Livorno 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spezia Livorno

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spezia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Spezia has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Spezia found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Livorno conceded in 74% of 27 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Spezia VS Livorno
2.13 Goals Scored 1.38
0.38 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Spezia

(Home)
10 Oct
Spezia
2 : 0
Gubbio
04 Oct
Reggiana
0 : 1
Spezia
27 Sept
Pescara
1 : 2
Spezia
21 Sept
Spezia
3 : 1
Vis Pesaro
16 Sept
Perugia
0 : 3
Spezia
Page 1 of 6

Livorno

(Away)
03 Oct
Livorno
0 : 1
Pescara
26 Sept
Livorno
3 : 2
Pianese
21 Sept
Guidonia 1937
1 : 1
Livorno
16 Sept
Livorno
3 : 2
Vado
12 Sept
Spezia
2 : 0
Livorno
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spezia 9 8 1 0 17:4 25
2 Grosseto 9 5 3 1 17:9 18
3 Ravenna 8 5 2 1 13:4 17
4 Sassari Torres 9 4 3 2 11:10 15
5 Reggiana 8 4 2 2 12:7 14
6 Livorno 8 4 2 2 10:9 14
7 Perugia 8 4 1 3 9:12 13
8 Guidonia 1937 8 3 3 2 10:7 12
9 Campobasso 8 3 3 2 12:11 12
10 Pescara 8 3 2 3 10:11 11
11 Forli FC 8 2 4 2 13:12 10
12 Ostiamare 9 2 3 4 9:10 9
13 Atalanta U23 7 3 0 4 8:11 9
14 Vado 8 2 2 4 6:8 8
15 Pianese 9 1 4 4 6:10 7
16 Pineto 8 1 4 3 6:11 7
17 Gubbio 9 2 1 6 10:18 7
18 Latina 7 1 3 3 6:9 6
19 Sambenedettese 8 1 2 5 11:14 5
20 Vis Pesaro 8 1 1 6 10:19 4
Promotion - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A (Play Out)