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Sport-ES vs Castelo FC

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Capixaba 2015
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AI Match Summary

The Campeonato Capixaba 2015 game between Sport-ES and Castelo FC finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Castelo FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Sport-ES
6%
Draws
90%
Castelo FC
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Castelo FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Sport-ES come out ahead of Castelo FC on wins alone.
  • Model gives Castelo FC a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Castelo FC here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Sport-ES Clean Sheet 20%
Castelo FC Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sport-ES Castelo FC
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 10 8
Draws 2 9
Losses 20 13
Goals Scored 0.88 0
Goals Conceded 2.5 0

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 18, 2024 Capixaba 2
Castelo FC vs Sport-ES
3:0
Sep 21, 2024 Capixaba 2
Sport-ES vs Castelo FC
0:1
Apr 24, 2015 Capixaba
Sport-ES vs Castelo FC
1:3
Apr 4, 2015 Capixaba
Castelo FC vs Sport-ES
0:1
Mar 15, 2015 Capixaba
Castelo FC vs Sport-ES
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sport-ES 10 / 100
Castelo FC 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sport-ES Castelo FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sport-ES found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (32 games).

Castelo FC let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Sport-ES has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sport-ES VS -
0.88 Goals Scored 0
2.5 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sport-ES

(Home)
21 Jul
Sport-ES
5 : 1
Tupy
17 Jul
Pinheiros
0 : 1
Sport-ES
06 Jun
Porto Vitoria
3 : 0
Sport-ES
31 May
Sport-ES
0 : 2
Rio Branco-VN
27 May
Vitoria ES
5 : 0
Sport-ES
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Castelo FC

(Away)
18 Nov
Vilavelhense
2 : 2
Castelo FC
13 Nov
Castelo FC
0 : 1
Vilavelhense
26 Oct
Capixaba SC
3 : 2
Castelo FC
18 Oct
Castelo FC
3 : 0
Sport-ES
15 Oct
GEL
1 : 7
Castelo FC
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