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Sport Recife vs Fortaleza - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Serie B Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Recife
Fri, Oct 16, 2026
VS
11:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sport Recife host Fortaleza in the Serie B. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Fortaleza have shipped 0.97 goals a game lately, while Sport Recife have conceded 1.14 and scored 1.41. Past meetings favor Fortaleza slightly — 1-4-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jun 28, 2026, ending 2:1. Model xG sits at 1.19 vs 1.31, favoring Fortaleza. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Sport Recife
30%
Draws
35%
Fortaleza
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Fortaleza have won more games recently than Sport Recife.
  • Win probability leans Sport Recife's way, sitting at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Fortaleza have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Sport Recife Clean Sheet 18%
Fortaleza Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sport Recife Fortaleza
Matches Played 29 34
Wins 13 15
Draws 7 10
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.41 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.14 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2026 Serie B
Fortaleza vs Sport Recife
2:1
May 28, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Sport Recife vs Fortaleza
0:2
May 21, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Fortaleza vs Sport Recife
1:2
Apr 30, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Fortaleza vs Sport Recife
2:0
Sep 27, 2025 Serie A Betano
Fortaleza vs Sport Recife
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sport Recife 36 / 100
Fortaleza 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sport Recife Fortaleza

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sport Recife scored in 90% of their last 29 games.

Fortaleza let in goals in 62% of their last 34 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Sport Recife has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sport Recife VS Fortaleza
1.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sport Recife

(Home)
06 Oct
Sport Recife
2 : 1
Sao Bernardo
01 Oct
Athletic Club
1 : 2
Sport Recife
26 Sept
Nautico
3 : 1
Sport Recife
19 Sept
Sport Recife
2 : 1
EC Juventude
16 Sept
CRB
2 : 1
Sport Recife
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Fortaleza

(Away)
07 Oct
America MG
0 : 1
Fortaleza
03 Oct
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Nautico
27 Sept
Fortaleza
2 : 2
Athletic Club
20 Sept
Londrina
1 : 2
Fortaleza
13 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Ceara
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 EC Juventude 32 17 8 7 37:19 59
2 Vila Nova FC 32 17 7 8 44:31 58
3 Novorizontino 32 16 9 7 54:27 57
4 Fortaleza 32 15 11 6 37:27 56
5 Criciuma 32 15 8 9 33:28 53
6 Atletico GO 32 14 10 8 40:30 52
7 CRB 32 15 6 11 49:45 51
8 Sport Recife 32 13 11 8 44:34 50
9 Operario-PR 32 13 9 10 44:43 48
10 Cuiaba 32 11 14 7 32:25 47
11 Goias 32 13 6 13 32:40 45
12 Sao Bernardo 32 12 9 11 44:34 45
13 Nautico 32 11 9 12 39:40 42
14 Ceara 32 11 9 12 35:39 42
15 Athletic Club 32 10 12 10 38:37 42
16 Botafogo SP 32 10 8 14 36:38 38
17 Avai 32 9 6 17 32:43 33
18 Londrina 32 7 7 18 40:47 28
19 America MG 32 4 5 23 21:53 17
20 Ponte Preta 32 3 4 25 17:68 13
Promotion - Serie A Betano 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C 2027 (First stage)