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Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

MLS Children's Mercy Park, Kansas City, KS
Sporting Kansas City Logo

Sporting Kansas City

3 - 3
FT
Portland Timbers Logo

Portland Timbers

Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Da Costa D.
Assist: Lassiter A.
12'
Janssen V.
45' Event
Janssen V.
(Penalty)
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this MLS matchup, with the score ending 3-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Sporting Kansas City
15%
Draws
34%
Portland Timbers
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sporting Kansas City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Portland Timbers lately — more wins on the board than Sporting Kansas City.
  • Model gives Sporting Kansas City a 51% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Portland Timbers have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Sporting Kansas City Clean Sheet 10%
Portland Timbers Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sporting Kansas City Portland Timbers
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 6 10
Draws 3 5
Losses 18 12
Goals Scored 1.19 1.96
Goals Conceded 2.41 1.81
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 11, 2026 MLS
Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers
3:3
May 10, 2026 MLS
Portland Timbers vs Sporting Kansas City
6:0
May 11, 2025 MLS
Portland Timbers vs Sporting Kansas City
1:0
Apr 13, 2025 MLS
Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers
2:4
May 26, 2024 MLS
Portland Timbers vs Sporting Kansas City
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sporting Kansas City Compare

Top Goalscorer Andre Luiz
2 Goals
Assists Leader Reynolds J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Portland Timbers Compare

Top Goalscorer Da Costa D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lassiter A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sporting Kansas City 56 / 100
Portland Timbers 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sporting Kansas City Portland Timbers

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sporting Kansas City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Portland Timbers let in goals in 96% of their last 27 matches.

H2H data points to 4.40 goals as a typical output.

Sporting Kansas City's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Difficult form: Portland Timbers registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sporting Kansas City VS Portland Timbers
1.63 Goals Scored 1.75
2 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Sporting Kansas City

(Home)
02 Oct
Seattle Sounders
2 : 1
Sporting Kansas City
27 Sept
Houston Dynamo
0 : 2
Sporting Kansas City
20 Sept
Sporting Kansas City
3 : 4
Philadelphia Union
13 Sept
Sporting Kansas City
3 : 1
Los Angeles FC
06 Sept
FC Dallas
4 : 3
Sporting Kansas City
Page 1 of 6

Portland Timbers

(Away)
27 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes
3 : 1
Portland Timbers
20 Sept
Portland Timbers
0 : 1
Atlanta United
13 Sept
FC Dallas
2 : 1
Portland Timbers
10 Sept
Portland Timbers
2 : 2
St. Louis City
06 Sept
Portland Timbers
5 : 4
Minnesota United
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 28 15 6 7 61:30 51
2 St. Louis City 27 13 8 6 48:36 47
3 FC Dallas 28 13 8 7 52:45 47
4 San Jose Earthquakes 28 13 7 8 50:40 46
5 Houston Dynamo 28 13 6 9 36:34 45
6 Los Angeles FC 29 11 9 9 44:31 42
7 Seattle Sounders 28 11 8 9 38:35 41
8 Colorado Rapids 28 11 4 13 39:39 37
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 37:44 36
10 Portland Timbers 28 9 6 13 51:54 33
11 Real Salt Lake 28 9 5 14 41:46 32
12 San Diego FC 28 8 8 12 48:51 32
13 Austin FC 28 7 10 11 36:51 31
14 Minnesota United 28 7 9 12 42:51 30
15 Sporting Kansas City 28 6 4 18 35:68 22
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 28 19 6 3 59:22 63
2 Inter Miami 28 13 10 5 68:50 49
3 Chicago Fire 28 14 6 8 51:40 48
4 New England Revolution 28 14 4 10 45:39 46
5 Charlotte FC 28 13 7 8 50:40 46
6 Philadelphia Union 28 12 6 10 56:45 42
7 Orlando City 28 11 4 13 51:66 37
8 New York Red Bulls 28 10 6 12 38:52 36
9 FC Cincinnati 27 9 9 9 58:65 36
10 New York City 28 8 9 11 42:38 33
11 Toronto FC 28 7 11 10 41:52 32
12 DC United 27 6 12 9 34:46 30
13 Columbus Crew 28 8 5 15 41:46 29
14 Atlanta United 28 7 6 15 33:48 27
15 CF Montreal 28 6 6 16 35:56 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)