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Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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MLS Children's Mercy Park, Kansas City, KS
Sporting Kansas City Logo

Sporting Kansas City

1 - 1
FT
St. Louis City Logo

St. Louis City

Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Bassong Z.
21'
Durkin C.
45'
Miller J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this MLS matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Sporting Kansas City
20%
Draws
52%
St. Louis City
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: St. Louis City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to St. Louis City lately — more wins on the board than Sporting Kansas City.
  • Win probability leans St. Louis City's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular MLS form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 84%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 84%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
Sporting Kansas City Clean Sheet 10%
St. Louis City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sporting Kansas City St. Louis City
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 6 17
Draws 4 7
Losses 18 3
Goals Scored 1.25 2.19
Goals Conceded 2.43 1.22
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 20, 2026 MLS
Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City
1:1
Jul 17, 2026 MLS
St. Louis City vs Sporting Kansas City
3:2
May 15, 2025 MLS
St. Louis City vs Sporting Kansas City
2:2
Apr 6, 2025 MLS
Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City
2:0
Sep 29, 2024 MLS
St. Louis City vs Sporting Kansas City
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sporting Kansas City Compare

Top Goalscorer Harris C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

St. Louis City Compare

Top Goalscorer Lowen E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.27
Avg xA / game 1.39

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sporting Kansas City 14 / 100
St. Louis City 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sporting Kansas City St. Louis City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick St. Louis City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 5:6
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Sporting Kansas City's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

St. Louis City let in goals in 78% of their last 27 matches.

Sporting Kansas City went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sporting Kansas City VS St. Louis City
2 Goals Scored 2.63
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Sporting Kansas City

(Home)
11 Oct
Sporting Kansas City
3 : 3
Portland Timbers
02 Oct
Seattle Sounders
2 : 1
Sporting Kansas City
27 Sept
Houston Dynamo
0 : 2
Sporting Kansas City
20 Sept
Sporting Kansas City
3 : 4
Philadelphia Union
13 Sept
Sporting Kansas City
3 : 1
Los Angeles FC
Page 1 of 6

St. Louis City

(Away)
30 Sept
New York Red Bulls
0 : 3
St. Louis City
20 Sept
St. Louis City
3 : 1
Toronto FC
17 Sept
Colorado Rapids
0 : 3
St. Louis City
13 Sept
St. Louis City
4 : 2
Minnesota United
10 Sept
Portland Timbers
2 : 2
St. Louis City
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 28 15 6 7 61:30 51
2 St. Louis City 27 13 8 6 48:36 47
3 FC Dallas 28 13 8 7 52:45 47
4 San Jose Earthquakes 28 13 7 8 50:40 46
5 Houston Dynamo 28 13 6 9 36:34 45
6 Los Angeles FC 29 11 9 9 44:31 42
7 Seattle Sounders 28 11 8 9 38:35 41
8 Colorado Rapids 28 11 4 13 39:39 37
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 37:44 36
10 Portland Timbers 28 9 6 13 51:54 33
11 Real Salt Lake 28 9 5 14 41:46 32
12 San Diego FC 28 8 8 12 48:51 32
13 Austin FC 28 7 10 11 36:51 31
14 Minnesota United 28 7 9 12 42:51 30
15 Sporting Kansas City 28 6 4 18 35:68 22
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 28 19 6 3 59:22 63
2 Inter Miami 28 13 10 5 68:50 49
3 Chicago Fire 28 14 6 8 51:40 48
4 New England Revolution 28 14 4 10 45:39 46
5 Charlotte FC 28 13 7 8 50:40 46
6 Philadelphia Union 28 12 6 10 56:45 42
7 Orlando City 28 11 4 13 51:66 37
8 New York Red Bulls 28 10 6 12 38:52 36
9 FC Cincinnati 27 9 9 9 58:65 36
10 New York City 28 8 9 11 42:38 33
11 Toronto FC 28 7 11 10 41:52 32
12 DC United 27 6 12 9 34:46 30
13 Columbus Crew 28 8 5 15 41:46 29
14 Atlanta United 28 7 6 15 33:48 27
15 CF Montreal 28 6 6 16 35:56 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)