Sport Picks
Sporting Trestina vs Montevarchi Prediction & H2H Stats
Italy
Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 
Match Events
75'
75'
Kondaj E.
AI Match Summary
Montevarchi in this Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Montevarchi.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
20%
51%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Montevarchi
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Sporting Trestina haven't matched Montevarchi's recent run of results.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
- Regular Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Sporting Trestina Clean Sheet 68%
Montevarchi Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sporting Trestina | Montevarchi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 32 |
| Wins | 10 | 12 |
| Draws | 11 | 14 |
| Losses | 11 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.16 | 0.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.31 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 1, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Sporting Trestina vs Montevarchi
0:1
Sep 28, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs Sporting Trestina
1:1
Apr 13, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs Sporting Trestina
0:0
Dec 1, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Sporting Trestina vs Montevarchi
2:2
Aug 4, 2024 Club Friendly
Sporting Trestina vs Montevarchi
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Sporting Trestina Compare
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Montevarchi Compare
Top Goalscorer Kondaj E.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sporting Trestina 42 / 100
Montevarchi 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sporting Trestina Montevarchi
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Sporting Trestina scored in 75% of their last 32 games.
Montevarchi let in goals in 44% of their last 32 matches.
Games between these two average 1.40 goals.
Sporting Trestina has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Sporting Trestina VS Montevarchi
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Sporting Trestina
(Home) 27 Sept
Sporting Trestina
2 : 0 Termoli
20 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 0 Sporting Trestina
16 Sept
Sporting Trestina
0 : 1 Fossombrone
12 Sept
Lanciano FC
0 : 0 Sporting Trestina
06 Sept
Sporting Trestina
2 : 5 Vigor Senigallia
Page 1 of 7
27 Sept
Sporting Trestina
2 : 0 Termoli
16 Sept
Sporting Trestina
0 : 1 Fossombrone
06 Sept
Sporting Trestina
2 : 5 Vigor Senigallia
26 Apr
Sporting Trestina
0 : 2 Prato
12 Apr
Sporting Trestina
1 : 1 Follonica Gavorrano
Page 1 of 4
Montevarchi
(Away) 27 Sept
Montevarchi
2 : 0 SCD Progresso
20 Sept
Siena
3 : 0 Montevarchi
16 Sept
Seravezza Pozzi
1 : 1 Montevarchi
12 Sept
Montevarchi
4 : 1 Tau
06 Sept
Lucchese
2 : 1 Montevarchi
Page 1 of 7
20 Sept
Siena
3 : 0 Montevarchi
16 Sept
Seravezza Pozzi
1 : 1 Montevarchi
06 Sept
Lucchese
2 : 1 Montevarchi
05 Aug
Pianese
2 : 0 Montevarchi
03 May
Prato
1 : 0 Montevarchi
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grosseto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 58:25 | 72 |
| 2 | Tau | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 53:33 | 63 |
| 3 | Prato | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 49:29 | 63 |
| 4 | Siena | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 57:35 | 60 |
| 5 | Seravezza Pozzi | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 42:29 | 57 |
| 6 | Terranuova Traiana | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 28:30 | 51 |
| 7 | Foligno | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 45:37 | 51 |
| 8 | Scandicci | 34 | 11 | 15 | 8 | 39:32 | 48 |
| 9 | Montevarchi | 34 | 10 | 16 | 8 | 28:32 | 46 |
| 10 | Sporting Trestina | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 40:42 | 42 |
| 11 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 30:35 | 40 |
| 12 | Ghiviborgo | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42:44 | 40 |
| 13 | Orvietana | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 33:37 | 38 |
| 14 | Follonica Gavorrano | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36:49 | 37 |
| 15 | Camaiore Calcio | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 41:54 | 35 |
| 16 | Poggibonsi | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 29:46 | 31 |
| 17 | Cannara | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 24:59 | 26 |
| 18 | Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro | 34 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 20:46 | 22 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Out)
