Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sportivo Ameliano vs Cerro Porteno - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Paraguay Paraguay

Copa de Primera Estadio Martín Torres, Asunción
Sportivo Ameliano Logo

Sportivo Ameliano

1 - 0
FT
Cerro Porteno Logo

Cerro Porteno

Our Tip

Match Events

28'
Nanni R.
46'
Sub
Dominguez F. In: Bobadilla C.
Out: Dominguez F.
56'
Sub
Peralta R. In: Moreira E.
Out: Peralta R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. The second leg ended 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Sportivo Ameliano
30%
Draws
33%
Cerro Porteno
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sportivo Ameliano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Cerro Porteno carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 37% — that's where the model lands on Sportivo Ameliano taking it.
  • Cerro Porteno arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Cerro Porteno, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Sportivo Ameliano Clean Sheet 68%
Cerro Porteno Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sportivo Ameliano Cerro Porteno
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 13
Draws 13 7
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1.17 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.1 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Copa de Primera
Sportivo Ameliano vs Cerro Porteno
1:0
Apr 24, 2026 Copa de Primera
Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Ameliano
1:1
Feb 25, 2026 Copa de Primera
Sportivo Ameliano vs Cerro Porteno
0:1
Sep 20, 2025 Copa de Primera
Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Ameliano
2:0
Jul 12, 2025 Copa de Primera
Sportivo Ameliano vs Cerro Porteno
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sportivo Ameliano Compare

Top Goalscorer Cabral R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Cerro Porteno Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sportivo Ameliano 50 / 100
Cerro Porteno 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sportivo Ameliano Cerro Porteno

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sportivo Ameliano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Sportivo Ameliano scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Recent resilience: Sportivo Ameliano stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Cerro Porteno's defensive record shows goals conceded in 57% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.40 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Sportivo Ameliano VS Cerro Porteno
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sportivo Ameliano

(Home)
06 Oct
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 2
Rubio Nu
25 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
1 : 1
Sportivo Ameliano
19 Sept
Libertad Asuncion
1 : 1
Sportivo Ameliano
11 Sept
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 0
San Lorenzo
06 Sept
Sp. Luqueno
1 : 2
Sportivo Ameliano
Page 1 of 6

Cerro Porteno

(Away)
05 Oct
Cerro Porteno
0 : 2
2 de Mayo
30 Sept
Cerro Porteno
2 : 1
Rubio Nu
26 Sept
Sportivo Trinidense
2 : 1
Cerro Porteno
19 Sept
Cerro Porteno
1 : 0
Rubio Nu
12 Sept
Guarani
1 : 1
Cerro Porteno
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Olimpia Asuncion 13 8 2 3 22:10 26
2 Libertad Asuncion 13 8 2 3 21:14 26
3 2 de Mayo 13 7 4 2 16:13 25
4 Sportivo Trinidense 14 7 3 4 24:14 24
5 Nacional Asuncion 13 6 5 2 20:8 23
6 Guarani 13 5 6 2 14:10 21
7 Cerro Porteno 14 6 2 6 18:14 20
8 Sportivo Ameliano 13 4 6 3 15:15 18
9 Sp. Luqueno 14 4 1 9 14:27 13
10 Rubio Nu 13 3 3 7 15:24 12
11 Recoleta 13 2 2 9 14:26 8
12 San Lorenzo 14 0 4 10 5:23 4
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)