Sport Picks
Sportivo Ameliano vs Libertad Asuncion
Paraguay
Copa de Primera Estadio Martín Torres, Asunción 
Match Events
3'
3'
Gimenez N.
23'
23'
Falabella A.
46'
46'
Sub
Molinas A. In: Caballero H.
Out: Molinas A.
AI Match Summary
Sportivo Ameliano in this Copa de Primera tie, finishing 2-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
60%
22%
18%
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Sportivo Ameliano
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
82%
/ Very High Confidence
- Attack-wise there's a gap: Libertad Asuncion at 1.88 per game, Sportivo Ameliano at 0.88.
- Win probability leans Sportivo Ameliano's way, sitting at 60%.
- Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
- Historical meetings favor Libertad Asuncion, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Sportivo Ameliano Clean Sheet 68%
Libertad Asuncion Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sportivo Ameliano | Libertad Asuncion |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 27 |
| Wins | 9 | 9 |
| Draws | 11 | 3 |
| Losses | 8 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 0.88 | 1.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.88 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.00 | 1.75 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 27, 2026 Copa de Primera
Sportivo Ameliano vs Libertad Asuncion
2:0
Jan 28, 2026 Copa de Primera
Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano
1:0
Oct 18, 2025 Copa de Primera
Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano
1:2
Aug 4, 2025 Copa de Primera
Sportivo Ameliano vs Libertad Asuncion
0:4
Apr 27, 2025 Copa de Primera
Sportivo Ameliano vs Libertad Asuncion
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Sportivo Ameliano Compare
Top Goalscorer Falabella A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44
Libertad Asuncion Compare
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sportivo Ameliano 68 / 100
Libertad Asuncion 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sportivo Ameliano Libertad Asuncion
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick AME Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Sportivo Ameliano scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.
Libertad Asuncion's defensive record shows goals conceded in 74% of 27 matches.
These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.
Recent resilience: Sportivo Ameliano stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Sportivo Ameliano VS Libertad Asuncion
0.88 Goals Scored 1.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Sportivo Ameliano
(Home) 25 Jul
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
24 May
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 2 Sportivo Trinidense
16 May
Guarani
1 : 0 Sportivo Ameliano
11 May
Sportivo Ameliano
3 : 2 Recoleta
03 May
Olimpia Asuncion
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
Page 1 of 6
25 Jul
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
24 May
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 2 Sportivo Trinidense
11 May
Sportivo Ameliano
3 : 2 Recoleta
20 Apr
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
05 Apr
Sportivo Ameliano
2 : 2 Sp. Luqueno
Page 1 of 3
Libertad Asuncion
(Away) 27 May
Libertad Asuncion
0 : 1 Universidad Central
24 May
Nacional Asuncion
2 : 1 Libertad Asuncion
20 May
Independiente del Valle
4 : 1 Libertad Asuncion
14 May
Libertad Asuncion
0 : 0 2 de Mayo
10 May
Sp. Luqueno
2 : 3 Libertad Asuncion
Page 1 of 6
24 May
Nacional Asuncion
2 : 1 Libertad Asuncion
20 May
Independiente del Valle
4 : 1 Libertad Asuncion
10 May
Sp. Luqueno
2 : 3 Libertad Asuncion
05 May
Rosario Central
1 : 0 Libertad Asuncion
21 Apr
Rubio Nu
3 : 0 Libertad Asuncion
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 22 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 37:17 | 49 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 31:22 | 39 |
| 3 | Cerro Porteno | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 30:22 | 38 |
| 4 | Sportivo Ameliano | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 27:21 | 33 |
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 30:24 | 32 |
| 6 | Libertad Asuncion | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 34:26 | 31 |
| 7 | Guarani | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 27:23 | 29 |
| 8 | Recoleta | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 35:32 | 28 |
| 9 | Rubio Nu | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 15:26 | 23 |
| 10 | 2 de Mayo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 18:35 | 22 |
| 11 | Sp. Luqueno | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 24:33 | 20 |
| 12 | San Lorenzo | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 14:41 | 15 |
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)