Sport Picks
Sportivo Ameliano vs San Lorenzo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Paraguay
Copa de Primera Estadio Arsenio Erico, Asunción 
Match Events
5'
5'
Peralta R.
26'
26'
Gerzel G.
58'
58'
Sub
Ferreira Gonzalez K. In: Ortiz E.
Out: Ferreira Gonzalez K.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
35%
25%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Sportivo Ameliano
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Sportivo Ameliano have won more games recently than San Lorenzo.
- Sportivo Ameliano are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Sportivo Ameliano have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Sportivo Ameliano, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- These two have met 5 times recently and Sportivo Ameliano have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Sportivo Ameliano Clean Sheet 68%
San Lorenzo Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sportivo Ameliano | San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 9 | 5 |
| Draws | 13 | 7 |
| Losses | 7 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.17 | 0.61 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 11, 2026 Copa de Primera
Sportivo Ameliano vs San Lorenzo
1:0
Mar 31, 2026 Copa de Primera
San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Ameliano
1:2
Jan 31, 2026 Copa de Primera
Sportivo Ameliano vs San Lorenzo
1:0
Sep 25, 2021 Division Intermedia
Sportivo Ameliano vs San Lorenzo
3:0
Jun 19, 2021 Division Intermedia
San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Ameliano
2:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sportivo Ameliano 95 / 100
San Lorenzo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sportivo Ameliano San Lorenzo
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Sportivo Ameliano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Sportivo Ameliano scored in 83% of their last 29 games.
Defensive concern: San Lorenzo conceded in 79% of 28 recent games.
These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.
Sportivo Ameliano went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Sportivo Ameliano VS San Lorenzo
1.25 Goals Scored 0.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Sportivo Ameliano
(Home) 06 Oct
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 2 Rubio Nu
25 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
19 Sept
Libertad Asuncion
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
11 Sept
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 0 San Lorenzo
06 Sept
Sp. Luqueno
1 : 2 Sportivo Ameliano
Page 1 of 6
06 Oct
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 2 Rubio Nu
11 Sept
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 0 San Lorenzo
02 Sept
Sportivo Ameliano
0 : 3 Sportivo Trinidense
22 Aug
Sportivo Ameliano
3 : 1 Recoleta
08 Aug
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 0 Cerro Porteno
Page 1 of 3
San Lorenzo
(Away) 03 Oct
Guarani
1 : 1 San Lorenzo
28 Sept
San Lorenzo
0 : 0 Recoleta
23 Sept
San Lorenzo
2 : 1 4 de Mayo
20 Sept
San Lorenzo
0 : 3 Olimpia Asuncion
11 Sept
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 0 San Lorenzo
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Guarani
1 : 1 San Lorenzo
11 Sept
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 0 San Lorenzo
01 Sept
Rubio Nu
3 : 1 San Lorenzo
24 Aug
Libertad Asuncion
1 : 0 San Lorenzo
16 Aug
Cerro Porteno
1 : 0 San Lorenzo
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 22:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Libertad Asuncion | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 21:14 | 26 |
| 3 | 2 de Mayo | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 16:13 | 25 |
| 4 | Sportivo Trinidense | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24:14 | 24 |
| 5 | Nacional Asuncion | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 20:8 | 23 |
| 6 | Guarani | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 14:10 | 21 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 18:14 | 20 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 15:15 | 18 |
| 9 | Sp. Luqueno | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 14:27 | 13 |
| 10 | Rubio Nu | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 15:24 | 12 |
| 11 | Recoleta | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14:26 | 8 |
| 12 | San Lorenzo | 14 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 5:23 | 4 |
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
