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St. Croix vs Edgewater Castle

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USL League Two
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AI Match Summary

The USL League Two game between St. Croix and Edgewater Castle finished 7-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward St. Croix.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
St. Croix
6%
Draws
4%
Edgewater Castle
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: St. Croix

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • St. Croix carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans St. Croix's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular USL League Two form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 92%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 92%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
St. Croix Clean Sheet 14%
Edgewater Castle Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric St. Croix Edgewater Castle
Matches Played 30 12
Wins 9 2
Draws 2 0
Losses 19 10
Goals Scored 1.63 1.13
Goals Conceded 2.13 3.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 3.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2026 USL League Two
St. Croix vs Edgewater Castle
7:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

St. Croix 84 / 100
Edgewater Castle 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
St. Croix Edgewater Castle

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick STC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Edgewater Castle's defensive record shows goals conceded in 100% of 12 matches.

H2H data points to 8.00 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Edgewater Castle registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

St. Croix found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

St. Croix VS Edgewater Castle
1.63 Goals Scored 1.13
2.13 Goals Conceded 3.75
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 88%

Recent Form & Match History

St. Croix

(Home)
11 Jul
St. Croix
3 : 0
Rockford Raptors
09 Jul
Rochester FC
1 : 3
St. Croix
05 Jul
St. Croix
7 : 1
Edgewater Castle
01 Jul
Minneapolis City
3 : 0
St. Croix
21 Jun
Sueno
3 : 1
St. Croix
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Edgewater Castle

(Away)
12 Jul
Edgewater Castle
0 : 4
Minneapolis City
05 Jul
St. Croix
7 : 1
Edgewater Castle
27 Jun
Edgewater Castle
0 : 5
Chicago Dutch Lions
25 Jun
Rockford Raptors
3 : 2
Edgewater Castle
20 Jun
Minneapolis City
3 : 1
Edgewater Castle
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