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Stadium Background

St Etienne vs Rodez

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint-Étienne
Fri, May 15, 2026
1 - 0
06:30 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

60'
Sub
Duffus J. In: Moueffek A.
Out: Duffus J.
64'
Kante A.
67'
Sub
Ponti R. In: Jean-Lambert E.
Out: Ponti R.

AI Match Summary

St Etienne in this Ligue 1 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
St Etienne
15%
Draws
21%
Rodez
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: St Etienne

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • St Etienne have won more games recently than Rodez.
  • 64% — that's where the model lands on St Etienne taking it.
  • St Etienne have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor St Etienne, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
St Etienne Clean Sheet 15%
Rodez Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric St Etienne Rodez
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 16 15
Draws 4 7
Losses 8 5
Goals Scored 1.89 1.78
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 Ligue 1
St Etienne vs Rodez
1:0
May 2, 2026 Ligue 2
Rodez vs St Etienne
2:1
Aug 16, 2025 Ligue 2
St Etienne vs Rodez
4:0
Jul 27, 2024 Club Friendly
Rodez vs St Etienne
0:0
May 24, 2024 Ligue 1
St Etienne vs Rodez
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

St Etienne 84 / 100
Rodez 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
St Etienne Rodez

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick St Etienne Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 5:4
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rodez's defensive record shows goals conceded in 85% of 27 matches.

St Etienne scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

St Etienne has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

St Etienne VS Rodez
3.13 Goals Scored 2
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

St Etienne

(Home)
12 Sept
Dunkerque
2 : 1
St Etienne
05 Sept
St Etienne
3 : 1
Montpellier
31 Aug
Dijon
2 : 3
St Etienne
22 Aug
St Etienne
4 : 0
Grenoble
14 Aug
St Etienne
3 : 1
Clermont
Page 1 of 6

Rodez

(Away)
11 Sept
Rodez
0 : 1
Grenoble
05 Sept
Metz
4 : 1
Rodez
28 Aug
Rodez
2 : 2
Pau
22 Aug
Nantes
2 : 5
Rodez
14 Aug
Annecy
2 : 0
Rodez
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Nice -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
St Etienne -
TBD -
Red Star 2
Rodez 3
Semi-finals
Nice -
TBD -
St Etienne 1
Rodez 0
Final
Nice 4
St Etienne 1