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St. George Willawong vs Logan Lightning Prediction & H2H Stats

Australia Australia

Queensland Premier League Willawong, Willawong
Our Tip

Match Events

58' Event
Nana C.
74' Event
Bell K.

AI Match Summary

The Queensland Premier League game between St. George Willawong and Logan Lightning finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Logan Lightning.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
St. George Willawong
15%
Draws
59%
Logan Lightning
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Logan Lightning

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • St. George Willawong haven't matched Logan Lightning's recent run of results.
  • Logan Lightning are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular Queensland Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
St. George Willawong Clean Sheet 12%
Logan Lightning Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric St. George Willawong Logan Lightning
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 11
Draws 4 5
Losses 20 14
Goals Scored 0.83 1.63
Goals Conceded 2.33 1.8
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Queensland Premier League
Logan Lightning vs St. George Willawong
4:1
May 10, 2026 Queensland Premier League
St. George Willawong vs Logan Lightning
0:2
Aug 31, 2024 Queensland Premier League
St. George Willawong vs Logan Lightning
2:1
Jun 16, 2024 Queensland Premier League
St. George Willawong vs Logan Lightning
3:1
Mar 16, 2024 Queensland Premier League
Logan Lightning vs St. George Willawong
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

St. George Willawong Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Logan Lightning Compare

Top Goalscorer Nana C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bell K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

St. George Willawong 14 / 100
Logan Lightning 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
St. George Willawong Logan Lightning

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Logan Lightning Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Logan Lightning conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

St. George Willawong found the back of the net in 53% of recent matches (30 games).

Recent resilience: St. George Willawong stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

St. George Willawong VS Logan Lightning
0.88 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

St. George Willawong

(Home)
15 Aug
St. George Willawong
1 : 6
Sunshine Coast Wanderers
09 Aug
Logan Lightning
4 : 1
St. George Willawong
02 Aug
St. George Willawong
0 : 1
Brisbane Strikers
18 Jul
St. George Willawong
1 : 0
Caboolture
11 Jul
St. George Willawong
0 : 2
Robina City
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Logan Lightning

(Away)
15 Aug
Redlands
2 : 0
Logan Lightning
09 Aug
Logan Lightning
4 : 1
St. George Willawong
31 Jul
Broadbeach Utd.
1 : 0
Logan Lightning
18 Jul
Logan Lightning
2 : 2
Sunshine Coast Wanderers
11 Jul
Logan Lightning
3 : 2
Ipswich
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brisbane Strikers 22 17 3 2 52:18 54
2 Broadbeach Utd. 22 16 4 2 51:20 52
3 Sunshine Coast Wanderers 22 10 7 5 46:28 37
4 Ipswich 22 10 5 7 35:30 35
5 Robina City 22 9 5 8 36:29 32
6 Caboolture 22 9 4 9 45:38 31
7 Redlands 22 8 6 8 40:38 30
8 Holland Park Hawks 22 9 3 10 40:48 30
9 Logan Lightning 22 8 3 11 39:41 27
10 North Star 22 6 3 13 22:41 21
11 St. George Willawong 22 4 1 17 13:52 13
12 Capalaba FC 22 3 2 17 21:57 11
Promotion - Queensland Premier League (Play Offs)