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St. Liege vs Charleroi

Belgium Belgium

Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 Maurice Dufrasnestadion, Liège
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Ilaimaharitra M.
40'
Van Den Kerkhof K.
50'
Nzita M.

AI Match Summary

The Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 game between St. Liege and Charleroi finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Charleroi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
St. Liege
33%
Draws
27%
Charleroi
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: St. Liege

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • St. Liege carry the better recent record into this one.
  • St. Liege are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
St. Liege Clean Sheet 68%
Charleroi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric St. Liege Charleroi
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 17 11
Draws 6 6
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 2.63 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.5 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
St. Liege vs Charleroi
0:2
Apr 18, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi vs St. Liege
1:2
Jan 18, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi vs St. Liege
2:0
Oct 31, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
St. Liege vs Charleroi
3:1
May 4, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
St. Liege vs Charleroi
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

St. Liege Compare

Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31

Charleroi Compare

Top Goalscorer Romsaas J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bernier A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

St. Liege 50 / 100
Charleroi 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
St. Liege Charleroi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LIE Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

St. Liege scored in 75% of their last 32 games.

Charleroi has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Solid form: St. Liege remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

St. Liege VS Charleroi
2.63 Goals Scored 1.38
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

St. Liege

(Home)
26 Jul
St. Liege
2 : 1
RFC Seraing
25 Jul
St. Liege
0 : 1
Juventus
18 Jul
Dunkerque
2 : 0
St. Liege
11 Jul
St. Liege
1 : 0
Francs Borains
08 Jul
RFC Aubel
0 : 4
St. Liege
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Charleroi

(Away)
25 Jul
Charleroi
2 : 1
RFC Seraing
25 Jul
Lens
2 : 2
Charleroi
17 Jul
Feyenoord
3 : 1
Charleroi
11 Jul
Charleroi
2 : 2
Reims
23 May
St. Liege
0 : 2
Charleroi
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
7Genk1045111:638
8St. Liege1052317:1137
9Charleroi1052312:834
10Westerlo1041514:1733
11Antwerp1041512:1631
12Leuven101369:1723
Promotion - Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)