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Stadium Background

St. Liege vs Charleroi

Belgium Belgium

Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 Maurice Dufrasnestadion, Liège
St. Liege Logo

St. Liege

0 - 2
FT
Charleroi Logo

Charleroi

Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Ilaimaharitra M.
40'
Van Den Kerkhof K.
50'
Nzita M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 game between St. Liege and Charleroi finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Charleroi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
St. Liege
15%
Draws
46%
Charleroi
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Charleroi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • St. Liege carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 46% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
St. Liege Clean Sheet 12%
Charleroi Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric St. Liege Charleroi
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 11
Draws 8 5
Losses 7 13
Goals Scored 1.72 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
St. Liege vs Charleroi
0:2
Apr 18, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi vs St. Liege
1:2
Jan 18, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi vs St. Liege
2:0
Oct 31, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
St. Liege vs Charleroi
3:1
May 4, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
St. Liege vs Charleroi
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

St. Liege Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Charleroi Compare

Top Goalscorer Romsaas J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bernier A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

St. Liege 35 / 100
Charleroi 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
St. Liege Charleroi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Charleroi Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

St. Liege scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Charleroi has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Solid form: St. Liege remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

St. Liege VS Charleroi
1.5 Goals Scored 2.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

St. Liege

(Home)
12 Sept
Westerlo
4 : 2
St. Liege
05 Sept
St. Liege
1 : 0
Antwerp
29 Aug
Leuven
1 : 2
St. Liege
21 Aug
St. Liege
2 : 0
RAAL La Louviere
16 Aug
KV Mechelen
3 : 3
St. Liege
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Charleroi

(Away)
13 Sept
Waregem
0 : 1
Charleroi
05 Sept
Charleroi
2 : 3
Royale Union SG
29 Aug
Kortrijk
1 : 3
Charleroi
22 Aug
Charleroi
2 : 0
KV Mechelen
16 Aug
Lommel SK
0 : 1
Charleroi
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
7 Genk 10 4 5 1 11:6 38
8 St. Liege 10 5 2 3 17:11 37
9 Charleroi 10 5 2 3 12:8 34
10 Westerlo 10 4 1 5 14:17 33
11 Antwerp 10 4 1 5 12:16 31
12 Leuven 10 1 3 6 9:17 23
Promotion - Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)