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St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

MLS CITYPARK, St. Louis, MO
St. Louis City Logo

St. Louis City

2 - 1
FT
Houston Dynamo Logo

Houston Dynamo

Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Becher S.
Assist: Matan A.
27'
Matan A.
46'
Sub
Saracchi M. In: Felipe Andrade
Out: Saracchi M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

St. Louis City in this MLS matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored St. Louis City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
St. Louis City
30%
Draws
19%
Houston Dynamo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: St. Louis City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to St. Louis City lately — more wins on the board than Houston Dynamo.
  • St. Louis City are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
St. Louis City Clean Sheet 20%
Houston Dynamo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric St. Louis City Houston Dynamo
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 17 15
Draws 7 5
Losses 3 8
Goals Scored 2.19 1.39
Goals Conceded 1.22 1.04
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 MLS
St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo
2:1
May 20, 2026 US Open Cup
St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo
3:2
Aug 31, 2025 MLS
St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo
2:3
Jun 29, 2025 MLS
Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City
1:0
Oct 6, 2024 MLS
St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

St. Louis City Compare

Top Goalscorer Becher S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Polvara D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Houston Dynamo Compare

Top Goalscorer Aliyu I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

St. Louis City 85 / 100
Houston Dynamo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
St. Louis City Houston Dynamo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick St. Louis City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

St. Louis City found the back of the net in 96% of recent matches (27 games).

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: St. Louis City stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Houston Dynamo has conceded goals in 57% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

St. Louis City VS Houston Dynamo
2.88 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 50%
100% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

St. Louis City

(Home)
30 Sept
New York Red Bulls
0 : 3
St. Louis City
20 Sept
St. Louis City
3 : 1
Toronto FC
17 Sept
Colorado Rapids
0 : 3
St. Louis City
13 Sept
St. Louis City
4 : 2
Minnesota United
10 Sept
Portland Timbers
2 : 2
St. Louis City
Page 1 of 6

Houston Dynamo

(Away)
27 Sept
Houston Dynamo
0 : 2
Sporting Kansas City
20 Sept
Houston Dynamo
2 : 2
FC Cincinnati
13 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes
1 : 0
Houston Dynamo
10 Sept
Houston Dynamo
2 : 1
Real Salt Lake
05 Sept
Charlotte FC
0 : 0
Houston Dynamo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 27 15 5 7 60:29 50
2 St. Louis City 27 13 8 6 48:36 47
3 FC Dallas 27 13 8 6 50:42 47
4 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13 6 8 49:39 45
5 Houston Dynamo 27 13 5 9 34:32 44
6 Los Angeles FC 28 11 8 9 43:30 41
7 Seattle Sounders 27 10 8 9 35:35 38
8 Colorado Rapids 27 11 3 13 38:38 36
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 37:44 36
10 Portland Timbers 27 9 5 13 48:51 32
11 Real Salt Lake 27 9 5 13 40:44 32
12 San Diego FC 27 8 8 11 47:47 32
13 Austin FC 27 7 10 10 35:47 31
14 Minnesota United 27 7 8 12 40:49 29
15 Sporting Kansas City 27 6 3 18 32:65 21
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 27 18 6 3 55:21 60
2 New England Revolution 27 14 4 9 45:36 46
3 Inter Miami 27 12 10 5 64:50 46
4 Chicago Fire 27 13 6 8 49:39 45
5 Charlotte FC 27 12 7 8 47:38 43
6 Philadelphia Union 27 11 6 10 54:44 39
7 Orlando City 27 10 4 13 48:64 34
8 New York Red Bulls 27 9 6 12 34:51 33
9 New York City 27 8 9 10 41:36 33
10 FC Cincinnati 26 8 9 9 55:64 33
11 DC United 26 6 12 8 34:42 30
12 Columbus Crew 27 8 5 14 39:43 29
13 Toronto FC 27 6 11 10 39:51 29
14 Atlanta United 27 7 6 14 32:45 27
15 CF Montreal 27 6 6 15 34:54 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)