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St. Louis City vs Minnesota United - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

MLS CITYPARK, St. Louis, MO
St. Louis City Logo

St. Louis City

4 - 2
FT
Minnesota United Logo

Minnesota United

Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Chancalay T.
Assist: Pereyra J.
18' Event
Edelman D.
22' Event
Holse C.
Assist: Wallem C.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The MLS game between St. Louis City and Minnesota United finished 4-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward St. Louis City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

74%
St. Louis City
20%
Draws
6%
Minnesota United
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: St. Louis City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and St. Louis City come out ahead of Minnesota United on wins alone.
  • 74% — that's where the model lands on St. Louis City taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 90%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 90%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
St. Louis City Clean Sheet 11%
Minnesota United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric St. Louis City Minnesota United
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 17 7
Draws 7 7
Losses 3 13
Goals Scored 2.19 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.22 1.74
Expected Goals (xG) 2.88 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 MLS
St. Louis City vs Minnesota United
4:2
Jul 27, 2025 MLS
St. Louis City vs Minnesota United
1:2
May 21, 2025 US Open Cup
Minnesota United vs St. Louis City
3:2
May 18, 2025 MLS
Minnesota United vs St. Louis City
3:0
Feb 9, 2025 Club Friendly
Minnesota United vs St. Louis City
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

St. Louis City Compare

Top Goalscorer Edelman D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Holse C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.44

Minnesota United Compare

Top Goalscorer Chancalay T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

St. Louis City 83 / 100
Minnesota United 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
St. Louis City Minnesota United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick St. Louis City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 6:5
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: St. Louis City scored in 96% of their last 27 outings.

Minnesota United let in goals in 85% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Solid form: St. Louis City remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

St. Louis City VS Minnesota United
2.88 Goals Scored 2.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.88
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 100%
63% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

St. Louis City

(Home)
30 Sept
New York Red Bulls
0 : 3
St. Louis City
20 Sept
St. Louis City
3 : 1
Toronto FC
17 Sept
Colorado Rapids
0 : 3
St. Louis City
13 Sept
St. Louis City
4 : 2
Minnesota United
10 Sept
Portland Timbers
2 : 2
St. Louis City
Page 1 of 6

Minnesota United

(Away)
11 Oct
Minnesota United
2 : 2
Houston Dynamo
27 Sept
Seattle Sounders
3 : 1
Minnesota United
20 Sept
Minnesota United
2 : 3
Los Angeles Galaxy
13 Sept
St. Louis City
4 : 2
Minnesota United
10 Sept
Minnesota United
1 : 2
FC Dallas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 28 15 6 7 61:30 51
2 St. Louis City 27 13 8 6 48:36 47
3 FC Dallas 28 13 8 7 52:45 47
4 San Jose Earthquakes 28 13 7 8 50:40 46
5 Houston Dynamo 28 13 6 9 36:34 45
6 Los Angeles FC 29 11 9 9 44:31 42
7 Seattle Sounders 28 11 8 9 38:35 41
8 Colorado Rapids 28 11 4 13 39:39 37
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 37:44 36
10 Portland Timbers 28 9 6 13 51:54 33
11 Real Salt Lake 28 9 5 14 41:46 32
12 San Diego FC 28 8 8 12 48:51 32
13 Austin FC 28 7 10 11 36:51 31
14 Minnesota United 28 7 9 12 42:51 30
15 Sporting Kansas City 28 6 4 18 35:68 22
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 28 19 6 3 59:22 63
2 Inter Miami 28 13 10 5 68:50 49
3 Chicago Fire 28 14 6 8 51:40 48
4 New England Revolution 28 14 4 10 45:39 46
5 Charlotte FC 28 13 7 8 50:40 46
6 Philadelphia Union 28 12 6 10 56:45 42
7 Orlando City 28 11 4 13 51:66 37
8 New York Red Bulls 28 10 6 12 38:52 36
9 FC Cincinnati 27 9 9 9 58:65 36
10 New York City 28 8 9 11 42:38 33
11 Toronto FC 28 7 11 10 41:52 32
12 DC United 27 6 12 9 34:46 30
13 Columbus Crew 28 8 5 15 41:46 29
14 Atlanta United 28 7 6 15 33:48 27
15 CF Montreal 28 6 6 16 35:56 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)