Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom

Poland Poland

Division 1 2025/2026 Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu, Mielec
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Wlazlo P.
10'
Matic M.
40' Event
Odolak K.
Assist: Gerbowski F.

AI Match Summary

Stal Mielec in this Division 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Stal Mielec.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Stal Mielec
17%
Draws
70%
Polonia Bytom
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Polonia Bytom

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Polonia Bytom at 2 per game, Stal Mielec at 1.63.
  • Model gives Polonia Bytom a 70% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.6%
Stal Mielec Clean Sheet 10%
Polonia Bytom Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Stal Mielec Polonia Bytom
Matches Played 28 26
Wins 9 9
Draws 5 4
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 1.63 2
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Division 1
Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom
4:1
Nov 22, 2025 Division 1
Polonia Bytom vs Stal Mielec
4:1
Nov 21, 2015 Division 2
Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom
4:3
Aug 1, 2015 Division 2
Polonia Bytom vs Stal Mielec
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Stal Mielec Compare

Top Goalscorer Wlazlo P.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Odolak K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Polonia Bytom Compare

Top Goalscorer Arak J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Stal Mielec 14 / 100
Polonia Bytom 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Stal Mielec Polonia Bytom

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick POL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Stal Mielec found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

Polonia Bytom has conceded goals in 85% of their last 26 outings.

Historical meetings average 4.75 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Stal Mielec stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Stal Mielec VS Polonia Bytom
1.63 Goals Scored 2
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Stal Mielec

(Home)
17 Jul
Stal Mielec
3 : 4
Avia Swidnik
17 Jul
Stal Mielec
2 : 2
Jaroslaw
11 Jul
Stal Mielec
1 : 4
Puszcza
04 Jul
Stal Mielec
1 : 0
Sandecja Nowy S.
01 Jul
Stal Mielec
1 : 5
Podhale Nowy Targ
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Polonia Bytom

(Away)
17 Jul
Polonia Bytom
4 : 0
Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski
11 Jul
Opava
3 : 2
Polonia Bytom
04 Jul
Polonia Bytom
3 : 1
Rekord Bielsko-Biala
20 Jun
Gryf Wejherowo
0 : 1
Polonia Bytom
24 May
Stal Mielec
4 : 1
Polonia Bytom
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Wisla342011372:3271
2Slask Wroclaw341711669:4762
3KS Wieczysta Krakow34169970:4757
4Chrobry Glogow341671148:3655
5LKS Lodz341591056:4854
6Polonia Warszawa341581152:4953
7Ruch Chorzow341411954:4653
8Legnica341571252:5352
9Puszcza341213945:4049
10Polonia Bytom341381356:5047
11Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki3411121151:5445
12Odra Opole3411111234:4044
13S. Rzeszow341271549:6043
14Stal Mielec341061851:6236
15Pogon Siedlce34991633:4336
16Pruszkow34772040:6828
17Leczna345121739:6227
18Tychy34582140:7423
Promotion - Ekstraklasa (Main)
Promotion - Division 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Division 2 (Main)