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Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

Championship Ochilview Park, Stenhousemuir
Tue, Oct 27, 2026
VS
07:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Stenhousemuir host Dunfermline in the Championship. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Dunfermline have shipped 0.97 goals a game lately, while Stenhousemuir have conceded 0.72 and scored 1.45. Head-to-head, Stenhousemuir have won 0 to Dunfermline's 5, with 0 draws. They last met on Jan 18, 2025, ending 3:0. Model xG sits at 1.25 vs 0.75, favoring Stenhousemuir. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Stenhousemuir
20%
Draws
38%
Dunfermline
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Stenhousemuir

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Stenhousemuir have won more games recently than Dunfermline.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Dunfermline have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
Stenhousemuir Clean Sheet 20%
Dunfermline Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Stenhousemuir Dunfermline
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 20 15
Draws 5 8
Losses 4 10
Goals Scored 1.45 1.3
Goals Conceded 0.72 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2025 Scottish Cup
Dunfermline vs Stenhousemuir
3:0
Jul 24, 2021 League Cup
Dunfermline vs Stenhousemuir
4:1
Mar 5, 2016 League One
Dunfermline vs Stenhousemuir
5:0
Feb 6, 2016 League One
Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline
0:3
Dec 19, 2015 League One
Dunfermline vs Stenhousemuir
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Stenhousemuir 32 / 100
Dunfermline 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Stenhousemuir Dunfermline

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Stenhousemuir scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Stenhousemuir has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Dunfermline let in goals in 55% of their last 33 matches.

Scoring Trends

Stenhousemuir VS Dunfermline
1.25 Goals Scored 1
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
38% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Stenhousemuir

(Home)
10 Oct
Inverness
2 : 0
Stenhousemuir
25 Sept
Ayr
0 : 1
Stenhousemuir
19 Sept
Stenhousemuir
1 : 0
Arbroath
15 Sept
Stenhousemuir
1 : 0
Partick
11 Sept
Stenhousemuir
0 : 3
Hearts
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Dunfermline

(Away)
10 Oct
Ayr
1 : 1
Dunfermline
03 Oct
Dunfermline
1 : 4
Aberdeen
19 Sept
Morton
0 : 1
Dunfermline
12 Sept
Dunfermline
2 : 0
Queen's Park
05 Sept
Arbroath
1 : 1
Dunfermline
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Stenhousemuir 9 7 1 1 12:4 22
2 Raith 10 6 2 2 15:6 20
3 Partick 9 5 3 1 10:3 18
4 Livingston 10 4 1 5 14:11 13
5 Dunfermline 8 3 4 1 7:5 13
6 Inverness 10 3 4 3 12:11 13
7 Ayr 10 3 3 4 10:11 12
8 Arbroath 10 3 2 5 7:15 11
9 Queen's Park 10 2 1 7 6:16 7
10 Morton 10 1 1 8 7:18 4
Promotion - Premiership 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Relegation - Championship (Relegation)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)