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Stockton vs Hednesford

England England

NPL Premier Division 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

56' Event
Coulthard T.
86' Event
Sterling-James O.
90' Event
Rose A.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Hednesford in this NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Hednesford.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Stockton
6%
Draws
90%
Hednesford
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Hednesford

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Hednesford have won more games recently than Stockton.
  • Model gives Hednesford a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Hednesford here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Stockton Clean Sheet 12%
Hednesford Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Stockton Hednesford
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 14 18
Draws 7 9
Losses 10 5
Goals Scored 1.13 2
Goals Conceded 1.5 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 28, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Hednesford vs Stockton
2:0
Jan 17, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Stockton vs Hednesford
1:2
Oct 28, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Hednesford vs Stockton
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Stockton Compare

Top Goalscorer Coulthard T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Hednesford Compare

Top Goalscorer Sterling-James O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Stockton 10 / 100
Hednesford 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Stockton Hednesford

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HED Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Stockton scored in 77% of their last 31 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.67 goals per match.

Stockton went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Hednesford conceded in 53% of 32 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Stockton VS Hednesford
1.13 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Stockton

(Home)
14 Jul
Stockton
1 : 3
Darlington FC
28 Apr
Hednesford
2 : 0
Stockton
25 Apr
Warrington Rylands
1 : 2
Stockton
21 Apr
United of Manchester
1 : 1
Stockton
18 Apr
Stockton
1 : 1
Lancaster
Page 1 of 7

Hednesford

(Away)
18 Jul
Hednesford
1 : 2
Solihull Moors
04 May
Hednesford
2 : 1
Warrington Rylands
28 Apr
Hednesford
2 : 0
Stockton
25 Apr
Hednesford
3 : 3
Ashton United
18 Apr
Cleethorpes
0 : 1
Hednesford
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hebburn Town402310775:4179
2Hednesford402211762:3577
3United of Manchester402191065:4172
4Warrington Rylands401813959:4267
5Stockton4018121062:5063
6Lancaster4017111256:4562
7Gainsborough4016111350:4559
8Leek Town401771650:5258
9Cleethorpes4014131356:4755
10Ashton United4014111547:5453
11Ilkeston401571852:5452
12Bamber Bridge401481852:5250
13Guiseley401391846:5648
14Warrington Town4012121643:6348
15Hyde4011141558:6347
16Rushall4012111748:6147
17Whitby4010131743:5543
18Workington4010131743:5843
19Prescot Cables409151640:5042
20Morpeth401262238:5442
21Stocksbridge408122038:6536
Promotion - National League North (Main)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 (Play Offs)