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Stockton vs Lancaster

England England

NPL Premier Division 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Sweet M.
50' Event
Lawson D.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Stockton
6%
Draws
90%
Lancaster
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Lancaster

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Stockton lately — more wins on the board than Lancaster.
  • Model gives Lancaster a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Stockton Clean Sheet 16%
Lancaster Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Stockton Lancaster
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 14 10
Draws 7 10
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Stockton vs Lancaster
1:1
Nov 22, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Lancaster vs Stockton
1:2
Jan 15, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Stockton vs Lancaster
1:0
Sep 10, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Lancaster vs Stockton
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Stockton Compare

Top Goalscorer Sweet M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Lancaster Compare

Top Goalscorer Lawson D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Stockton 10 / 100
Lancaster 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Stockton Lancaster

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LAN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Stockton scored in 77% of their last 31 outings.

Lancaster's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.25 goals as a typical output.

Stockton went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Stockton VS Lancaster
1 Goals Scored 1.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Stockton

(Home)
14 Jul
Stockton
1 : 3
Darlington FC
28 Apr
Hednesford
2 : 0
Stockton
25 Apr
Warrington Rylands
1 : 2
Stockton
21 Apr
United of Manchester
1 : 1
Stockton
18 Apr
Stockton
1 : 1
Lancaster
Page 1 of 7

Lancaster

(Away)
21 Jul
Lancaster
2 : 2
Preston U21
25 Apr
Lancaster
2 : 0
Stocksbridge
18 Apr
Stockton
1 : 1
Lancaster
11 Apr
Lancaster
3 : 0
Gainsborough
06 Apr
Bamber Bridge
1 : 1
Lancaster
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hebburn Town402310775:4179
2Hednesford402211762:3577
3United of Manchester402191065:4172
4Warrington Rylands401813959:4267
5Stockton4018121062:5063
6Lancaster4017111256:4562
7Gainsborough4016111350:4559
8Leek Town401771650:5258
9Cleethorpes4014131356:4755
10Ashton United4014111547:5453
11Ilkeston401571852:5452
12Bamber Bridge401481852:5250
13Guiseley401391846:5648
14Warrington Town4012121643:6348
15Hyde4011141558:6347
16Rushall4012111748:6147
17Whitby4010131743:5543
18Workington4010131743:5843
19Prescot Cables409151640:5042
20Morpeth401262238:5442
21Stocksbridge408122038:6536
Promotion - National League North (Main)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 (Play Offs)