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Strasbourg vs Rayo Vallecano

Europe Europe

Conference League 2025/2026 Stade de la Meinau
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Strasbourg play Rayo Vallecano in the Conference League 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Strasbourg averaged 1.87 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. Rayo Vallecano averaged 1.34 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. In past meetings, Strasbourg won 0, Rayo Vallecano won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 7, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Strasbourg and 1.44 for Rayo Vallecano. This points to a Rayo Vallecano double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Strasbourg
23%
Draws
39%
Rayo Vallecano
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Rayo Vallecano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Strasbourg picked up more points recently compared to Rayo Vallecano.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Over 3.5 Goals 33%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%
Strasbourg Clean Sheet 16%
Rayo Vallecano Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Strasbourg Rayo Vallecano
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 16 13
Draws 7 7
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.87 1.34
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 7, 2026 Conference League
Strasbourg vs Rayo Vallecano
0:1
Apr 30, 2026 Conference League
Rayo Vallecano vs Strasbourg
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Strasbourg Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Rayo Vallecano Compare

Top Goalscorer Alemao
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Strasbourg 37 / 100
Rayo Vallecano 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Strasbourg Rayo Vallecano

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Rayo Vallecano or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26.5%
3.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.2%
2.04
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Strasbourg attacking → ← attacking Rayo Vallecano

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Strasbourg scored in 77% of their last 31 games.

Rayo Vallecano let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Strasbourg went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Rayo Vallecano lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

55 Points in last 5 46
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00