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Struga vs Vardar

North Macedonia North Macedonia

1. MFL 2025/2026
Struga Logo

Struga

0 - 1
FT
Vardar Logo

Vardar

Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Cvetkovic S.
40'
Manevski M.
46'
Sub
Aliji A. In: Radeski M.
Out: Aliji A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Vardar in this 1. MFL 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vardar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Struga
20%
Draws
28%
Vardar
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Struga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Vardar lately — more wins on the board than Struga.
  • Model gives Struga a 52% chance of winning this.
  • Regular 1. MFL 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Struga Clean Sheet 68%
Vardar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Struga Vardar
Matches Played 34 33
Wins 15 21
Draws 7 4
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.85 2.18
Goals Conceded 0.94 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 1. MFL
Struga vs Vardar
0:1
Feb 28, 2026 1. MFL
Struga vs Vardar
1:1
Oct 5, 2025 1. MFL
Vardar vs Struga
2:2
May 21, 2025 Macedonian Cup
Vardar vs Struga
2:0
May 6, 2025 1. MFL
Vardar vs Struga
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Struga Compare

Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Vardar Compare

Top Goalscorer Cvetkovic S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Struga 95 / 100
Vardar 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Struga Vardar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Struga Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Struga remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Struga scored in 79% of their last 34 games.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Away concern: Vardar has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Struga VS Vardar
1.75 Goals Scored 1.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Struga

(Home)
09 Aug
FK Skopje
1 : 1
Struga
25 Jul
Struga
3 : 0
Shkendija Haracine
17 Jul
Skenderbeu Korca
0 : 1
Struga
08 Jul
Struga
6 : 0
Arsimi
01 Jul
Struga
1 : 1
Dinamo City
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Vardar

(Away)
09 Aug
Vardar
0 : 2
Shkendija Tetovo
28 Jul
Riga FC
5 : 2
Vardar
25 Jul
Vardar
2 : 0
Bregalnica Stip
22 Jul
Vardar
2 : 3
Riga FC
14 Jul
KuPS
2 : 3
Vardar
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vardar 33 26 5 2 80:21 83
2 Shkendija Tetovo 33 23 5 5 67:30 74
3 Struga 33 19 5 9 68:28 62
4 Sileks 33 16 5 12 59:36 53
5 Tikves 33 14 6 13 59:47 48
6 Arsimi 33 13 7 13 50:53 46
7 Bashkimi 33 11 9 13 40:54 42
8 Pelister 33 10 10 13 41:42 40
9 Brera Strumica 33 10 10 13 46:56 40
10 Makedonija GP 33 9 7 17 42:57 34
11 Rabotnicki 33 9 6 18 45:58 33
12 Shkupi 33 0 1 32 15:130 1
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - 1. MFL 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. MFL (Main)