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Sturm Graz vs Marseille - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

Europa League Merkur-Arena, Graz
Thu, Oct 22, 2026
VS
04:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sturm Graz host Marseille in the Europa League. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Recent numbers: Sturm Graz at 1.93 goals for, 1.14 against; Marseille at 1.36 for, 1.64 against. Past meetings favor Sturm Graz slightly — 1-1-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Oct 27, 1999, ending 3:2. The numbers (1.63 xG vs 1.25) point toward Sturm Graz. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Sturm Graz
15%
Draws
26%
Marseille
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sturm Graz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Marseille haven't matched Sturm Graz's recent run of results.
  • 59% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Sturm Graz Clean Sheet 19%
Marseille Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sturm Graz Marseille
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 15 11
Draws 7 2
Losses 6 15
Goals Scored 1.93 1.36
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.64
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 27, 1999 Champions League
Sturm Graz vs Marseille
3:2
Sep 14, 1999 Champions League
Marseille vs Sturm Graz
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sturm Graz 31 / 100
Marseille 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sturm Graz Marseille

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sturm Graz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sturm Graz's goal record stands at 82% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.50 goals when they meet.

Marseille's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.

Sturm Graz went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sturm Graz VS Marseille
1.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Sturm Graz

(Home)
15 Oct
Bournemouth
3 : 0
Sturm Graz
10 Oct
Austria Vienna
0 : 2
Sturm Graz
02 Oct
Sturm Graz
3 : 1
Floridsdorfer AC Wien
20 Sept
Salzburg
3 : 0
Sturm Graz
16 Sept
Sturm Graz
0 : 0
Rennes
Page 1 of 6

Marseille

(Away)
15 Oct
Marseille
0 : 1
Olympiacos Piraeus
11 Oct
Troyes
0 : 2
Marseille
20 Sept
Marseille
1 : 2
PSG
17 Sept
Besiktas
4 : 1
Marseille
11 Sept
Rennes
1 : 0
Marseille
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Juventus 2 2 0 0 7:1 6
2 Bayer Leverkusen 2 2 0 0 6:0 6
3 Benfica 2 2 0 0 6:1 6
4 Besiktas 2 2 0 0 7:3 6
5 Bournemouth 2 2 0 0 5:1 6
6 Omonia 2 2 0 0 4:0 6
7 Ferencvaros 2 2 0 0 5:2 6
8 Lyon 2 2 0 0 5:3 6
9 Sunderland 2 2 0 0 3:1 6
10 Olympiacos Piraeus 2 2 0 0 3:1 6
11 Sparta Prague 2 1 1 0 5:2 4
12 Royale Union SG 2 1 1 0 4:1 4
13 Rennes 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
14 Din. Zagreb 2 1 1 0 1:0 4
15 Crystal Palace 2 1 0 1 6:3 3
16 AC Milan 2 1 0 1 4:2 3
17 Jagiellonia 2 1 0 1 4:3 3
18 OFI Crete 2 1 0 1 3:2 3
19 Torreense 2 1 0 1 3:3 3
20 AZ Alkmaar 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
21 Salzburg 2 1 0 1 1:4 3
22 Real Sociedad 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
23 Lillestrom 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
24 Levski Sofia 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
25 H. Beer Sheva 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
26 Sturm Graz 2 0 1 1 0:3 1
27 Nijmegen 2 0 1 1 1:6 1
28 Celta Vigo 2 0 0 2 1:3 0
29 Anderlecht 2 0 0 2 1:3 0
30 Hoffenheim 2 0 0 2 2:5 0
31 Plzen 2 0 0 2 1:5 0
32 Marseille 2 0 0 2 1:5 0
33 Celtic 2 0 0 2 2:7 0
34 Ararat-Armenia 2 0 0 2 2:7 0
35 Celje 2 0 0 2 0:5 0
36 Lech Poznan 2 0 0 2 0:8 0
Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)