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Sturm Graz vs Mura

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Club Friendly
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sturm Graz play Mura in the Club Friendly. It looks like a close match. Recently, Sturm Graz averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.41 conceded. Mura averaged 1.04 goals scored and 1.84 conceded. In past meetings, Sturm Graz won 4, Mura won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 26, 2026 ended 5:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.81 for Sturm Graz and 1.25 for Mura. This points to a Sturm Graz double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Sturm Graz
27%
Draws
24%
Mura
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Sturm Graz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence
  • Sturm Graz picked up more points recently compared to Mura.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.81 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%
Sturm Graz Clean Sheet 19%
Mura Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sturm Graz Mura
Matches Played 27 25
Wins 10 6
Draws 11 5
Losses 6 14
Goals Scored 1.67 1.04
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.84
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 26, 2026 Club Friendly
Sturm Graz vs Mura
5:0
Jul 5, 2025 Club Friendly
Sturm Graz vs Mura
2:2
Jul 1, 2023 Club Friendly
Mura vs Sturm Graz
0:3
Jan 13, 2023 Club Friendly
Sturm Graz vs Mura
3:1
Jun 24, 2022 Club Friendly
Sturm Graz vs Mura
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sturm Graz Compare

Top Goalscorer Seidl S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Maierhofer B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Mura Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sturm Graz 48 / 100
Mura 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sturm Graz Mura

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Sturm Graz or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +19.6%
2.44
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.9%
2.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sturm Graz attacking → ← attacking Mura

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sturm Graz scored in 85% of their last 27 games.

Mura let in goals in 80% of their last 25 matches.

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

Sturm Graz went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Mura lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 23
2.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50