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Sudbury vs Leiston

England England

FA Trophy 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Tower - King K.
62' Event
Fowkes B.
81' Event
Tower - King K.

AI Match Summary

Sudbury in this FA Trophy 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

7%
Sudbury
35%
Draws
58%
Leiston
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Leiston

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Leiston have won more games recently than Sudbury.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Leiston taking it.
  • Leiston arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Leiston, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Leiston have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 47.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Sudbury Clean Sheet 10%
Leiston Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sudbury Leiston
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 4 14
Draws 6 9
Losses 20 7
Goals Scored 1.37 1.73
Goals Conceded 2.9 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 2.05
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Southern League Premier Central
Sudbury vs Leiston
0:3
Oct 25, 2025 FA Trophy
Sudbury vs Leiston
2:1
Oct 21, 2025 Southern League Premier Central
Leiston vs Sudbury
3:1
Mar 8, 2025 Southern League Premier Central
Sudbury vs Leiston
1:2
Sep 10, 2024 Southern League Premier Central
Leiston vs Sudbury
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sudbury Compare

Top Goalscorer Tower - King K.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Leiston Compare

Top Goalscorer Fowkes B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.86
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sudbury 10 / 100
Leiston 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sudbury Leiston

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LEI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Sudbury scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Leiston has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Sudbury has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sudbury VS Leiston
0.71 Goals Scored 1.25
2.86 Goals Conceded 1.38
86% Over 1.5 63%
71% Over 2.5 50%
57% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Sudbury

(Home)
01 Aug
Bury Town
3 : 3
Sudbury
25 Apr
Halesowen
5 : 0
Sudbury
18 Apr
Sudbury
0 : 4
Stourbridge
11 Apr
Banbury
2 : 0
Sudbury
06 Apr
Sudbury
1 : 3
Needham Market
Page 1 of 6

Leiston

(Away)
08 Aug
Anstey Nomads
1 : 1
Leiston
28 Jul
Gorleston
1 : 3
Leiston
10 Jul
Aveley
2 : 4
Leiston
25 Apr
Alvechurch
1 : 1
Leiston
18 Apr
Leiston
2 : 2
Spalding United
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/128-finals
Sudbury 2
Leiston 1
TBD -
Hereford -
Radcliffe -
TBD -
Bradford PA 2
Morpeth 1
Solihull Moors -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Spennymoor -
TBD -
AFC Fylde -
TBD -
Eastleigh -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Aldershot -
Buxton -
TBD -
TBD -
Southport -
Leek Town 3
Bromsgrove 0
TBD -
Scarborough Athletic -
Dover Ath. -
TBD -
Basingstoke 1
Dorchester 2
Brentwood 3
Welling 0
TBD -
Hornchurch -
Chesham -
TBD -
TBD -
Telford -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Altrincham -
Yeovil -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Torquay -
TBD -
TBD -
Maidstone -
Alvechurch 1
Worcester 0
Real Bedford 3
Ashford United 2
Redditch 1
Gainsborough 2
Alfreton -
TBD -
Scunthorpe -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Oxford City -
TBD -
TBD -
Peterborough Sports -
Chester -
TBD -
Clitheroe 4
Stockton 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
York City -
Leatherhead 2
Canvey Island 1
TBD -
Hampton & Richmond -
King’s Lynn -
TBD -
Stanway Rovers 1
Harrow Borough 2
Hemel Hempstead -
TBD -
TBD -
Chelmsford -
Horsham FC -
TBD -
Farnham 3
Bishops Cleeve 2
Wimborne 1
Portchester 0
Waltham Abbey 0
Chatham 2
Plymouth Parkway 2
Poole Town 1
TBD -
Salisbury -
Harborough 4
AFC Rushden & Diamonds 1
TBD -
Enfield Town -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Carlisle -
Dorking Wanderers -
TBD -
TBD -
Eastbourne Borough -
Bath City -
TBD -
Bracknell Town 1
Banbury 0
Southend -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Truro -
Halifax -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
United of Manchester 1
Bamber Bridge 0
TBD -
Darlington FC -
Hartlepool -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Bedford -
TBD -
Anstey Nomads 4
Stratford 0
Chorley -
TBD -
TBD -
Worksop -
Kidderminster -
TBD -
Spalding United 0
Corby 1
Gateshead -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Morecambe -
Ebbsfleet -
TBD -
Sittingbourne 2
Cray Valley 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Braintree -
Forest Green -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Chippenham Town -
TBD -
TBD -
Weston-super-Mare -
Wealdstone -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Billericay 0
Stortford 5
Wingate & Finchley 0
Cheshunt 1
Dagenham & Red. -
TBD -
Tilbury 1
Hadley 0
Merthyr Town -
TBD -
St. Albans 0
Hanwell Town 2
Tamworth -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Boston United -
Leamington -
TBD -
TBD -
Maidenhead -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Rochdale -
Ilkeston 3
St Ives Town 1
TBD -
Curzon Ashton -
Marine -
TBD -
Hyde 0
Stocksbridge 3
Slough Town -
TBD -
Gloucester City 1
Havant & Waterlooville 0
Tonbridge -
TBD -
TBD -
Worthing FC -
Walton & Hersham 5
Hendon 1
TBD -
Farnborough -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Sutton -
Boreham Wood -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Brackley -
Woking -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Burgess Hill 1
Folkestone 4
TBD -
AFC Totton -
South Shields -
TBD -
Dunston 1
Hebburn Town 0
Macclesfield -
TBD -
Prescot Cables 2
Guiseley 1
1/64-finals
Sudbury 1
Hereford 5
Radcliffe 3
Bradford PA 2
Solihull Moors -
TBD -
Spennymoor 2
AFC Fylde 3
Eastleigh -
TBD -
TBD -
Aldershot -
Buxton 2
Southport 3
Leek Town 1
Scarborough Athletic 0
Dover Ath. 2
Dorchester 0
Brentwood 0
Hornchurch 1
Chesham 1
Telford 2
TBD -
Altrincham -
Yeovil -
TBD -
Torquay 0
Maidstone 2
Alvechurch 2
Real Bedford 1
Gainsborough 1
Alfreton 2
Scunthorpe -
TBD -
Oxford City 1
Peterborough Sports 2
Chester 0
Clitheroe 1
TBD -
York City -
Leatherhead 2
Hampton & Richmond 0
King’s Lynn 2
Harrow Borough 3
Hemel Hempstead 1
Chelmsford 0
Horsham FC 2
Farnham 0
Wimborne 0
Chatham 1
Plymouth Parkway 4
Salisbury 3
Harborough 3
Enfield Town 0
TBD -
Carlisle -
Dorking Wanderers 3
Eastbourne Borough 2
Bath City 2
Bracknell Town 1
Southend -
TBD -
TBD -
Truro -
Halifax -
TBD -
United of Manchester 3
Darlington FC 2
Hartlepool -
TBD -
Bedford 0
Anstey Nomads 1
Chorley 2
Worksop 3
Kidderminster 3
Corby 0
Gateshead -
TBD -
TBD -
Morecambe -
Ebbsfleet 2
Sittingbourne 1
TBD -
Braintree -
Forest Green -
TBD -
Chippenham Town 0
Weston-super-Mare 1
Wealdstone -
TBD -
Stortford 1
Cheshunt 2
Dagenham & Red. 2
Tilbury 0
Merthyr Town 2
Hanwell Town 3
Tamworth -
TBD -
TBD -
Boston United -
Leamington 2
Maidenhead 0
TBD -
Rochdale -
Ilkeston 0
Curzon Ashton 1
Marine 2
Stocksbridge 0
Slough Town 1
Gloucester City 2
Tonbridge 0
Worthing FC 4
Walton & Hersham 2
Farnborough 1
TBD -
Sutton -
Boreham Wood -
TBD -
TBD -
Brackley -
Woking -
TBD -
Folkestone 1
AFC Totton 2
South Shields 6
Dunston 2
Macclesfield 1
Prescot Cables 0
1/32-finals
Hereford 2
Radcliffe 1
Solihull Moors 2
AFC Fylde 3
Eastleigh 2
Aldershot 1
Southport 3
Leek Town 1
Dover Ath. 1
Hornchurch 4
Telford 4
Altrincham 3
Yeovil 2
Maidstone 1
Alvechurch 3
Alfreton 2
Scunthorpe 5
Peterborough Sports 0
Clitheroe 2
York City 1
Leatherhead 3
Harrow Borough 2
Hemel Hempstead 0
Horsham FC 2
Chatham 3
Plymouth Parkway 0
Harborough 1
Carlisle 2
Dorking Wanderers 1
Bath City 2
Southend 4
Truro 0
Halifax 4
United of Manchester 0
Hartlepool 1
Anstey Nomads 2
Worksop 0
Kidderminster 1
Gateshead 0
Morecambe 3
Ebbsfleet 3
Braintree 1
Forest Green 4
Weston-super-Mare 0
Wealdstone 2
Cheshunt 1
Dagenham & Red. 3
Hanwell Town 1
Tamworth 2
Boston United 1
Leamington 0
Rochdale 1
Curzon Ashton 1
Marine 2
Gloucester City 4
Worthing FC 3
Walton & Hersham 4
Sutton 1
Boreham Wood 3
Brackley 4
Woking 2
AFC Totton 0
South Shields 0
Macclesfield 1
1/16-finals
Hereford 2
AFC Fylde 3
Eastleigh 0
Southport 2
Hornchurch 1
Telford 2
Yeovil 1
Alvechurch 0
Scunthorpe 3
Clitheroe 1
Leatherhead 2
Horsham FC 3
Chatham 1
Carlisle 0
Bath City 1
Southend 3
Halifax 4
Anstey Nomads 0
Kidderminster 6
Morecambe 2
Ebbsfleet 0
Forest Green 2
Wealdstone 1
Dagenham & Red. 0
Tamworth 2
Rochdale 1
Marine 2
Gloucester City 1
Walton & Hersham 1
Brackley 0
Woking 2
Macclesfield 1
1/8-finals
AFC Fylde 0
Southport 1
Telford 0
Yeovil 2
Scunthorpe 1
Horsham FC 2
Chatham 0
Southend 1
Halifax 1
Kidderminster 2
Forest Green 0
Wealdstone 3
Tamworth 0
Marine 1
Walton & Hersham 1
Woking 2
Quarter-finals
Southport 2
Yeovil 1
Horsham FC 1
Southend 2
Kidderminster 1
Wealdstone 2
Marine 1
Woking 0
Semi-finals
Southport 1
Southend 3
Wealdstone 1
Marine 0
Final
Southend 1
Wealdstone 0