Sport Picks
Sumsel United vs PSMS Medan
Indonesia
Championship 2025/2026 Gelora Sriwijaya Jakabaring, Palembang 
Match Events
13'
13'
Freitas V.
Assist: Rahayu R.
20'
20'
Fariel N.
25'
25'
Wijianto S.
AI Match Summary
Sumsel United in this Championship 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sumsel United.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
49%
35%
16%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Sumsel United
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
49%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Sumsel United lately — more wins on the board than PSMS Medan.
- Model gives Sumsel United a 49% chance of winning this.
- European nights carry their own weight — this Championship 2025/2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.6%
Sumsel United Clean Sheet 68%
PSMS Medan Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sumsel United | PSMS Medan |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 34 |
| Wins | 12 | 10 |
| Draws | 7 | 12 |
| Losses | 9 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 1.21 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.25 | 1.32 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 13, 2026 Championship
Sumsel United vs PSMS Medan
2:2
Feb 14, 2026 Championship
PSMS Medan vs Sumsel United
3:1
Nov 24, 2025 Championship
Sumsel United vs PSMS Medan
2:1
Sep 28, 2025 Championship
PSMS Medan vs Sumsel United
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Sumsel United Compare
Top Goalscorer Hidayat R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
PSMS Medan Compare
Top Goalscorer Freitas V.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sumsel United 86 / 100
PSMS Medan 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sumsel United PSMS Medan
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Sumsel United Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Sumsel United's goal record stands at 82% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
PSMS Medan's defensive record shows goals conceded in 88% of 34 matches.
Historical meetings average 3.25 goals per match.
Sumsel United went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Sumsel United VS PSMS Medan
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Sumsel United
(Home) 13 Sept
Sumsel United
2 : 2 PSMS Medan
02 May
Sumsel United
3 : 1 Persekat Tegal
26 Apr
PSPS Riau
2 : 0 Sumsel United
18 Apr
Sumsel United
1 : 1 Persikad Depok
12 Apr
Sumsel United
1 : 1 Bekasi City
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Sumsel United
2 : 2 PSMS Medan
02 May
Sumsel United
3 : 1 Persekat Tegal
18 Apr
Sumsel United
1 : 1 Persikad Depok
12 Apr
Sumsel United
1 : 1 Bekasi City
28 Feb
Sumsel United
3 : 0 Sriwijaya
Page 1 of 3
PSMS Medan
(Away) 13 Sept
Sumsel United
2 : 2 PSMS Medan
01 Aug
Persija Jakarta
4 : 1 PSMS Medan
29 Jul
Persebaya
1 : 0 PSMS Medan
26 Jul
PSMS Medan
0 : 2 Port MTI FC
02 May
Persiraja Aceh
1 : 1 PSMS Medan
Page 1 of 7
13 Sept
Sumsel United
2 : 2 PSMS Medan
01 Aug
Persija Jakarta
4 : 1 PSMS Medan
29 Jul
Persebaya
1 : 0 PSMS Medan
02 May
Persiraja Aceh
1 : 1 PSMS Medan
11 Apr
Garudayaksa
1 : 0 PSMS Medan
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garudayaksa | 27 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 49:19 | 52 |
| 2 | Isenmulang Kalteng | 27 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 64:34 | 51 |
| 3 | Bekasi City | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 42:27 | 44 |
| 4 | Sumsel United | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 40:33 | 42 |
| 5 | Persiraja Aceh | 27 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 42:32 | 40 |
| 6 | PSPS Riau | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 50:45 | 37 |
| 7 | PSMS Medan | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 33:31 | 36 |
| 8 | Persikad Depok | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 39:45 | 34 |
| 9 | Persekat Tegal | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 23:38 | 27 |
| 10 | Sriwijaya | 27 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 15:93 | 2 |
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Championship 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSS Sleman | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 53:19 | 56 |
| 2 | Persipura Jayapura | 27 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 44:17 | 56 |
| 3 | PS Barito Putera | 27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 41:18 | 53 |
| 4 | Tornado Pekanbaru | 27 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 47:21 | 50 |
| 5 | Deltras Sidoarjo | 27 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 39:33 | 42 |
| 6 | Persela Lamongan | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 34:26 | 41 |
| 7 | Persiku Kudus | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 35:41 | 27 |
| 8 | PSIS Semarang | 27 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 22:50 | 23 |
| 9 | Balikpapan | 27 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 23:42 | 19 |
| 10 | Persipal BU | 27 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 19:90 | 7 |
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Championship 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
