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Sunderland vs Leeds

World World

Premier League Summer Series Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison, NJ
Thu, Jul 30, 2026
0 - 1
11:30 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Nmecha L.
37'
39'

AI Match Summary

Sunderland host Leeds in the Premier League Summer Series. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Sunderland have averaged 2 scored and 2.13 conceded recently, against Leeds's 1.5 scored and 1.13 conceded. Head-to-head, Sunderland have won 1 to Leeds's 2, with 2 draws. They last met on Jul 30, 2026, ending 0:1. Model xG sits at 1.56 vs 1.81, favoring Leeds. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Sunderland
6%
Draws
4%
Leeds
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Sunderland

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Sunderland average 2 goals a game right now, well clear of Leeds's 1.5.
  • Model gives Sunderland a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Premier League Summer Series form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Sunderland Clean Sheet 11%
Leeds Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sunderland Leeds
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 11
Draws 7 10
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 2 1.5
Goals Conceded 2.13 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 30, 2026 Premier League Summer Series
Sunderland vs Leeds
0:1
Mar 3, 2026 Premier League
Leeds vs Sunderland
0:1
Dec 28, 2025 Premier League
Sunderland vs Leeds
1:1
Feb 17, 2025 Championship
Leeds vs Sunderland
2:1
Oct 4, 2024 Championship
Sunderland vs Leeds
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sunderland Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Leeds Compare

Top Goalscorer Nmecha L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sunderland 83 / 100
Leeds 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sunderland Leeds

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SUN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sunderland scored in 68% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: Leeds conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Sunderland has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sunderland VS Leeds
2 Goals Scored 1.5
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sunderland

(Home)
25 Jul
Liverpool
4 : 2
Sunderland
18 Jul
York City
1 : 5
Sunderland
24 May
Sunderland
2 : 1
Chelsea
17 May
Everton
1 : 3
Sunderland
09 May
Sunderland
0 : 0
Manchester United
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Leeds

(Away)
25 Jul
Wrexham
3 : 2
Leeds
24 May
West Ham
3 : 0
Leeds
17 May
Leeds
1 : 0
Brighton
11 May
Tottenham
1 : 1
Leeds
01 May
Leeds
3 : 1
Burnley
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