Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sunderland vs Leeds

World World

Premier League Summer Series Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison, NJ
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Nmecha L.
37'
Sub
Brobbey B. In: Tuterov T.
Out: Brobbey B.
45'
Tanaka A.

AI Match Summary

Leeds in this Premier League Summer Series matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Leeds.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Sunderland
35%
Draws
30%
Leeds
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Leeds have won more games recently than Sunderland.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Premier League Summer Series form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Sunderland Clean Sheet 15%
Leeds Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sunderland Leeds
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 14
Draws 4 9
Losses 13 7
Goals Scored 1.23 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 30, 2026 Premier League Summer Series
Sunderland vs Leeds
0:1
Mar 3, 2026 Premier League
Leeds vs Sunderland
0:1
Dec 28, 2025 Premier League
Sunderland vs Leeds
1:1
Feb 17, 2025 Championship
Leeds vs Sunderland
2:1
Oct 4, 2024 Championship
Sunderland vs Leeds
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sunderland Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Leeds Compare

Top Goalscorer Nmecha L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sunderland 35 / 100
Leeds 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sunderland Leeds

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leeds Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sunderland scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Leeds conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Sunderland has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sunderland VS Leeds
1.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sunderland

(Home)
20 Sept
Manchester City
5 : 3
Sunderland
16 Sept
Sunderland
1 : 0
AZ Alkmaar
12 Sept
Sunderland
0 : 2
Arsenal
08 Sept
Sunderland
1 : 0
Hull City
05 Sept
Brentford
1 : 1
Sunderland
Page 1 of 6

Leeds

(Away)
20 Sept
Leeds
0 : 0
Crystal Palace
14 Sept
Leeds
4 : 1
Newcastle Utd
09 Sept
Chelsea
6 : 3
Leeds
05 Sept
Brighton
1 : 1
Leeds
30 Aug
Leeds
1 : 1
Brentford
Page 1 of 6