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Sunrise vs Amagaju

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Rukundo A.
30' Event
Samson B.
69' Event
Samson B.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2023/2024 game between Sunrise and Amagaju finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sunrise.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Sunrise
35%
Draws
25%
Amagaju
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Sunrise

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Amagaju come out ahead of Sunrise on wins alone.
  • Model gives Sunrise a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 48%
Over 2.5 Goals 22%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.8%
Sunrise Clean Sheet 68%
Amagaju Clean Sheet 21%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sunrise Amagaju
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 8 9
Draws 7 8
Losses 14 15
Goals Scored 0.83 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 0.60 0.67
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2024 Premier League
Amagaju vs Sunrise
1:0
Dec 8, 2023 Premier League
Sunrise vs Amagaju
2:1
May 5, 2019 Premier League
Sunrise vs Amagaju
1:1
Dec 22, 2018 Premier League
Amagaju vs Sunrise
0:2
Jun 18, 2018 Premier League
Amagaju vs Sunrise
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sunrise Compare

Top Goalscorer Samson B.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.46
Avg xA / game 0.3

Amagaju Compare

Top Goalscorer Rukundo A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.61
Avg xA / game 0.37

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sunrise 50 / 100
Amagaju 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sunrise Amagaju

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sunrise Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Amagaju let in goals in 66% of their last 32 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Sunrise went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Sunrise found the back of the net in 48% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Sunrise VS Amagaju
0.33 Goals Scored 1
0.33 Goals Conceded 0.88
33% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sunrise

(Home)
17 Sept
Rayon Sport
1 : 1
Sunrise
05 Sept
Etincelles
0 : 0
Sunrise
11 May
Sunrise
3 : 1
Marines
04 May
Amagaju
1 : 0
Sunrise
28 Apr
Sunrise
2 : 1
Gorilla
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Amagaju

(Away)
18 Sept
Amagaju
0 : 0
Al-Merreikh
12 Sept
Gicumbi
1 : 0
Amagaju
05 Sept
Amagaju
2 : 0
Etoile de L'Est
30 May
Mukura Victory Sports
0 : 0
Amagaju
22 May
Amagaju
0 : 2
Muhanga
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 APR 30 19 11 0 47:17 68
2 Rayon Sport 30 17 6 7 42:25 57
3 Musanze 30 16 5 9 34:24 53
4 Mukura Victory Sports 30 13 8 9 39:32 47
5 Kigali FC 30 12 9 9 26:25 45
6 Kiyovu 30 11 11 8 38:34 44
7 Police 30 12 3 15 35:34 39
8 Amagaju 30 10 9 11 30:31 39
9 Gasogi United 30 10 6 14 31:34 36
10 Gorilla 30 9 8 13 26:33 35
11 Marines 30 9 8 13 32:42 35
12 Muhazi United 30 7 12 11 21:29 33
13 Bugesera 30 7 11 12 37:35 32
14 Etincelles 30 8 8 14 35:44 32
15 Sunrise 30 9 5 16 25:40 32
16 Etoile de L'Est 30 9 4 17 20:39 31
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2023/2024 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2024/2025 (Qualification)