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Sunshine Coast Wanderers vs Logan Lightning

Australia Australia

Queensland Premier League Ballinger Park
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Match Events

7' Event
Nezval M.
29' Event
Nezval M.
74' Event
Hazell P.

AI Match Summary

The Queensland Premier League game between Sunshine Coast Wanderers and Logan Lightning finished 5-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sunshine Coast Wanderers.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Sunshine Coast Wanderers
17%
Draws
13%
Logan Lightning
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Sunshine Coast Wanderers

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Logan Lightning carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Sunshine Coast Wanderers a 70% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Sunshine Coast Wanderers have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Sunshine Coast Wanderers Clean Sheet 16%
Logan Lightning Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sunshine Coast Wanderers Logan Lightning
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 13
Draws 6 4
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 2.75 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Queensland Premier League
Logan Lightning vs Sunshine Coast Wanderers
2:2
Apr 19, 2026 Queensland Premier League
Sunshine Coast Wanderers vs Logan Lightning
5:2
Jun 11, 2022 NPL Queensland
Logan Lightning vs Sunshine Coast Wanderers
0:3
Mar 27, 2022 NPL Queensland
Sunshine Coast Wanderers vs Logan Lightning
3:0
Jul 11, 2021 NPL Queensland
Logan Lightning vs Sunshine Coast Wanderers
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sunshine Coast Wanderers Compare

Top Goalscorer Nezval M.
3 Goals
Assists Leader McDougall K.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38

Logan Lightning Compare

Top Goalscorer Hazell P.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sunshine Coast Wanderers 66 / 100
Logan Lightning 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sunshine Coast Wanderers Logan Lightning

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SUN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Logan Lightning let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Sunshine Coast Wanderers scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Sunshine Coast Wanderers remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Sunshine Coast Wanderers VS Logan Lightning
2.75 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Brisbane Strikers19153146:1548
2Broadbeach Utd.19144148:1846
3Ipswich1994632:2931
4Sunshine Coast Wanderers1986538:2630
5Robina City1884630:2028
6Caboolture1983835:3227
7Redlands1874735:3225
8Logan Lightning1973935:3724
9Holland Park Hawks1873829:3324
10St. George Willawong19411411:4113
11North Star19331318:4012
12Capalaba FC18221417:518