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Sunshine Coast Wanderers vs St. George Willawong

Australia Australia

Queensland Premier League Ballinger Park
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Sutherland H.
32' Event
McDougall K.
44' Event
Salmon C.

AI Match Summary

Sunshine Coast Wanderers host St. George Willawong in the Queensland Premier League. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. St. George Willawong have shipped 2.88 goals a game lately, while Sunshine Coast Wanderers have conceded 1.13 and scored 2.63. Past meetings favor St. George Willawong slightly — 1-2-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jun 3, 2026, ending 8:0. xG projections (2.75 - 0.94) back Sunshine Coast Wanderers to edge this. Sunshine Coast Wanderers in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Sunshine Coast Wanderers
6%
Draws
4%
St. George Willawong
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Sunshine Coast Wanderers

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Sunshine Coast Wanderers has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to St. George Willawong.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Sunshine Coast Wanderers.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Queensland Premier League provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Sunshine Coast Wanderers Clean Sheet 20%
St. George Willawong Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sunshine Coast Wanderers St. George Willawong
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 5
Draws 6 5
Losses 15 19
Goals Scored 2.63 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.13 2.88
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 2.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 3, 2026 Queensland Premier League
Sunshine Coast Wanderers vs St. George Willawong
8:0
Aug 10, 2025 NPL Queensland
St. George Willawong vs Sunshine Coast Wanderers
3:2
May 17, 2025 NPL Queensland
Sunshine Coast Wanderers vs St. George Willawong
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sunshine Coast Wanderers Compare

Top Goalscorer Sutherland H.
2 Goals
Assists Leader McDougall K.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31

St. George Willawong Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sunshine Coast Wanderers 85 / 100
St. George Willawong 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sunshine Coast Wanderers St. George Willawong

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SUN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sunshine Coast Wanderers scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

St. George Willawong let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 6.00 goals.

Sunshine Coast Wanderers went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

St. George Willawong lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sunshine Coast Wanderers VS St. George Willawong
2.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.88
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Broadbeach Utd.18144047:1646
2Brisbane Strikers18143144:1445
3Sunshine Coast Wanderers1885536:2429
4Robina City1884630:2028
5Ipswich1884629:2728
6Caboolture1883735:3127
7Redlands1874735:3225
8Holland Park Hawks1873829:3324
9Logan Lightning1872933:3523
10North Star18331216:3712
11St. George Willawong18311410:4110
12Capalaba FC18221417:518