Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Super Nova vs FK Liepaja

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga LNK Sporta Parks - artificial grass, Riga
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Patijcuks D.
20'
Emsis E.
33' Event
Berzins L.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

FK Liepaja in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored FK Liepaja.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Super Nova
20%
Draws
38%
FK Liepaja
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Super Nova

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to FK Liepaja lately — more wins on the board than Super Nova.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Super Nova taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Super Nova Clean Sheet 18%
FK Liepaja Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Super Nova FK Liepaja
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 12
Draws 4 4
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 1.13 1
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 12, 2026 Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs Super Nova
2:1
Apr 23, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs FK Liepaja
1:2
Nov 9, 2025 Virsliga
Super Nova vs FK Liepaja
3:0
Aug 25, 2025 Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs Super Nova
0:3
Jun 17, 2025 Virsliga
Super Nova vs FK Liepaja
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Super Nova Compare

Top Goalscorer Samate A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

FK Liepaja Compare

Top Goalscorer Patijcuks D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Super Nova 41 / 100
FK Liepaja 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Super Nova FK Liepaja

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: FK Liepaja conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Super Nova's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Solid form: Super Nova remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Super Nova VS FK Liepaja
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Super Nova

(Home)
20 Jul
Super Nova
2 : 0
Grobina
11 Jul
Tukums 2000
1 : 2
Super Nova
06 Jul
Super Nova
1 : 2
Ogre United
01 Jul
Tukums 2000
1 : 2
Super Nova
25 Jun
Super Nova
1 : 5
Jelgava
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FK Liepaja

(Away)
23 Jul
FK Liepaja
0 : 2
Austria Vienna
15 Jul
Decic
1 : 2
FK Liepaja
11 Jul
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
FK Liepaja
09 Jul
FK Liepaja
1 : 0
Decic
04 Jul
BFC Daugavpils
3 : 1
FK Liepaja
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1RFS23192255:1659
2Riga FC23184168:2058
3FK Auda Riga22124637:2640
4BFC Daugavpils2386929:2930
5FK Liepaja22841028:3428
6Super Nova23831225:3527
7Jelgava23671024:3925
8Grobina23481115:3520
9Tukums 200023381238:4717
10Ogre United23341621:5913
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - Nakotnes liga 2027 (Main)