Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Super Nova vs Ogre United

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Jana Skredela stadions, Riga
Our Tip

Match Events

45'
Kudelkins A.
46'
Sub
Ivulans M. In: Kalnins M.
Out: Ivulans M.
48' Event
Lizunovs V.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

The Virsliga game between Super Nova and Ogre United finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ogre United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

62%
Super Nova
30%
Draws
8%
Ogre United
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Super Nova

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

62% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Super Nova come out ahead of Ogre United on wins alone.
  • Model gives Super Nova a 62% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Super Nova Clean Sheet 20%
Ogre United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Super Nova Ogre United
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 4
Draws 4 5
Losses 13 19
Goals Scored 1.04 1.18
Goals Conceded 1.32 2.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 6, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Ogre United
1:2
May 16, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Ogre United
3:1
Apr 3, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs Super Nova
1:2
Nov 10, 2024 1. Liga
Super Nova vs Ogre United
3:0
Jul 27, 2024 1. Liga
Ogre United vs Super Nova
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Super Nova Compare

Top Goalscorer Oss M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Ogre United Compare

Top Goalscorer Kudelkins A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Super Nova 85 / 100
Ogre United 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Super Nova Ogre United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Super Nova Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ogre United let in goals in 96% of their last 28 matches.

Attacking prowess: Super Nova scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Super Nova remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Super Nova VS Ogre United
1 Goals Scored 1.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 2.88
50% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 100%
0% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Super Nova

(Home)
10 Sept
Super Nova
1 : 0
Tukums 2000
05 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Super Nova
29 Aug
FK Auda Riga
1 : 1
Super Nova
22 Aug
Super Nova
0 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
16 Aug
Super Nova
0 : 1
RFS
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Ogre United

(Away)
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
Ogre United
30 Aug
Ogre United
0 : 3
RFS
22 Aug
Ogre United
2 : 3
Jelgava
14 Aug
BFC Daugavpils
3 : 1
Ogre United
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 28 22 4 2 68:20 70
2 Riga FC 29 20 7 2 84:30 67
3 FK Auda Riga 29 17 6 6 47:29 57
4 FK Liepaja 30 12 6 12 41:43 42
5 BFC Daugavpils 29 10 8 11 34:33 38
6 Super Nova 28 10 5 13 29:38 35
7 Jelgava 30 8 8 14 32:48 32
8 Grobina 30 5 10 15 20:51 25
9 Tukums 2000 30 5 8 17 43:60 23
10 Ogre United 29 3 6 20 29:75 15
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)