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Super Nova vs Ogre United

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Jana Skredela stadions
Our Tip

Match Events

45'
Kudelkins A.
46'
Sub
Ivulans M. In: Kalnins M.
Out: Ivulans M.
48' Event
Lizunovs V.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

The Virsliga game between Super Nova and Ogre United finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ogre United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Super Nova
20%
Draws
38%
Ogre United
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Super Nova

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Super Nova come out ahead of Ogre United on wins alone.
  • Model gives Super Nova a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Super Nova Clean Sheet 16%
Ogre United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Super Nova Ogre United
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 5
Draws 5 6
Losses 15 18
Goals Scored 1 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.88 2.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 2.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 6, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Ogre United
1:2
May 16, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Ogre United
3:1
Apr 3, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs Super Nova
1:2
Nov 10, 2024 Nakotnes liga
Super Nova vs Ogre United
3:0
Jul 27, 2024 Nakotnes liga
Ogre United vs Super Nova
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Super Nova Compare

Top Goalscorer Oss M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Ogre United Compare

Top Goalscorer Kudelkins A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Super Nova 41 / 100
Ogre United 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Super Nova Ogre United

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ogre United let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

Attacking prowess: Super Nova scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Super Nova remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Super Nova VS Ogre United
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.63
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1RFS22182254:1656
2Riga FC22174165:1955
3FK Auda Riga22124637:2640
4FK Liepaja22841028:3428
5BFC Daugavpils2276925:2927
6Jelgava2267924:3825
7Super Nova22731223:3524
8Grobina22481015:3320
9Tukums 200022381137:4417
10Ogre United22341521:5513