Sport Picks

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Super Nova vs RFS

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga LNK Sporta Parks, Riga
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Cirulis J.
14' Event
Glaudans A.
(Penalty)
18' Event
Panic S.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

RFS in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored RFS.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Super Nova
30%
Draws
37%
RFS
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: RFS

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to RFS lately — more wins on the board than Super Nova.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • RFS have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Super Nova Clean Sheet 16%
RFS Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Super Nova RFS
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 11 25
Draws 4 4
Losses 15 4
Goals Scored 0.97 2.27
Goals Conceded 1.3 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Latvian Cup
Super Nova vs RFS
0:1
May 29, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs RFS
1:2
Apr 18, 2026 Virsliga
RFS vs Super Nova
2:0
Jan 14, 2026 Club Friendly
RFS vs Super Nova
5:2
Nov 2, 2025 Virsliga
Super Nova vs RFS
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Super Nova Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

RFS Compare

Top Goalscorer Lemajic D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Super Nova 36 / 100
RFS 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Super Nova RFS

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick RFS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Super Nova scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Solid form: Super Nova remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: RFS conceded in 52% of 33 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Super Nova VS RFS
0.5 Goals Scored 2.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
25% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Super Nova

(Home)
20 Sept
Ogre United
1 : 0
Super Nova
15 Sept
Super Nova
0 : 1
Riga FC
10 Sept
Super Nova
1 : 0
Tukums 2000
05 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Super Nova
29 Aug
FK Auda Riga
1 : 1
Super Nova
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RFS

(Away)
13 Sept
BFC Daugavpils
1 : 2
RFS
07 Sept
RFS
0 : 0
FK Liepaja
03 Sept
RFS
2 : 3
Riga FC
30 Aug
Ogre United
0 : 3
RFS
23 Aug
RFS
3 : 3
Riga FC
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)