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Suriname vs El Salvador

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World Championship 2026 Franklin Essed Stadion
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AI Match Summary

Suriname play El Salvador in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Suriname averaged 1.37 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. El Salvador averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Suriname won 2, El Salvador won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Nov 13, 2025 ended 4:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for Suriname and 0.63 for El Salvador. This points to a El Salvador double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Suriname
26%
Draws
37%
El Salvador
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: El Salvador

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / Medium Confidence
  • Suriname picked up more points recently compared to El Salvador.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 0.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%
Suriname Clean Sheet 29%
El Salvador Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 61%
Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Suriname El Salvador
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 10 11
Draws 9 8
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.37 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 13, 2025 World Championship
Suriname vs El Salvador
4:0
Sep 9, 2025 World Championship
El Salvador vs Suriname
1:2
Jun 11, 2025 World Championship
El Salvador vs Suriname
1:1
Nov 16, 2011 World Championship
El Salvador vs Suriname
4:0
Nov 11, 2011 World Championship
Suriname vs El Salvador
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Suriname Compare

Top Goalscorer Margaret R.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Klas D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

El Salvador Compare

Avg xG / game 0.23
Avg xA / game 0.14

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Suriname 39 / 100
El Salvador 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Suriname El Salvador

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: El Salvador or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.7%
2.63
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Suriname attacking → ← attacking El Salvador

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Suriname scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

El Salvador let in goals in 68% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Suriname went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

El Salvador lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 41
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.25
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Panama63309:412
2Suriname62319:69
3Guatemala62228:78
4El Salvador61052:113
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Curacao633013:312
2Jamaica632111:311
3Trinidad & Tobago61417:67
4Bermuda60154:231
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Haiti63219:611
2Honduras62315:29
3Costa Rica61418:67
4Nicaragua61144:124