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Surnadal vs Nardo

Norway Norway

Division 3 - Group 2 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Rian H.
49' Event
Dahle-Fiske S.
57' Event
Kvande S. H.

AI Match Summary

Surnadal in this Division 3 - Group 2 2025 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Surnadal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Surnadal
20%
Draws
51%
Nardo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Nardo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Nardo lately — more wins on the board than Surnadal.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81%
Surnadal Clean Sheet 15%
Nardo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Surnadal Nardo
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 3 13
Draws 7 6
Losses 18 12
Goals Scored 1.36 2.32
Goals Conceded 3.36 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.79 1.55
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2025 Division 3 - Group 2
Surnadal vs Nardo
4:1
Jun 28, 2025 Division 3 - Group 2
Nardo vs Surnadal
6:0
Oct 20, 2024 Division 3 - Group 4
Nardo vs Surnadal
5:1
May 11, 2024 Division 3 - Group 4
Surnadal vs Nardo
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Surnadal Compare

Top Goalscorer Dahle-Fiske S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kvande S. H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.38
Avg xA / game 0.9

Nardo Compare

Top Goalscorer Rian H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.41
Avg xA / game 0.86

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Surnadal 31 / 100
Nardo 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Surnadal Nardo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nardo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:3
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Surnadal scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

Nardo let in goals in 81% of their last 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.75 goals when they meet.

Surnadal has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Nardo
0 Goals Scored 2
0 Goals Conceded 2.38
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Surnadal

(Home)
26 Oct
Surnadal
1 : 3
Spjelkavik
18 Oct
Tiller
1 : 1
Surnadal
11 Oct
Surnadal
2 : 3
Kristiansund 2
04 Oct
Melhus
1 : 1
Surnadal
27 Sept
Surnadal
4 : 1
Nardo
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Nardo

(Away)
21 Sept
Nardo
4 : 1
Ranheim 2
13 Sept
Rosenborg 2
2 : 5
Nardo
05 Sept
Nardo
4 : 2
Spjelkavik
15 Aug
Nardo
1 : 3
Melhus
08 Aug
Volda
2 : 0
Nardo
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