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SV Trupial vs Deportivo Nacional

Aruba Aruba

Division di Honor 2008/2009
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

SV Trupial play Deportivo Nacional in the Division di Honor 2008/2009. Deportivo Nacional are favorites here. Recently, SV Trupial averaged 0.72 goals scored and 2.83 conceded. Deportivo Nacional averaged 3.03 goals scored and 1.66 conceded. In past meetings, SV Trupial won 0, Deportivo Nacional won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 1, 2009 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.23 for SV Trupial and 1.61 for Deportivo Nacional. This points to a Deportivo Nacional double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

17%
SV Trupial
15%
Draws
68%
Deportivo Nacional
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Deportivo Nacional

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

94% / Very High Confidence
  • SV Trupial picked up more points recently compared to Deportivo Nacional.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.23 vs 1.61 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 71%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 71%
Over 3.5 Goals 43%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 56%
SV Trupial Clean Sheet 14%
Deportivo Nacional Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SV Trupial Deportivo Nacional
Matches Played 18 35
Wins 2 20
Draws 3 2
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 0.72 3.03
Goals Conceded 2.83 1.66

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2009 Division di Honor
Deportivo Nacional vs SV Trupial
3:2
Sep 27, 2008 Division di Honor
SV Trupial vs Deportivo Nacional
0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SV Trupial 18 / 100
Deportivo Nacional 64 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SV Trupial Deportivo Nacional

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Deportivo Nacional Win (2)
Secondary Pick Deportivo Nacional & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +88.9%
11.11
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.3%
1.54
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

SV Trupial attacking → ← attacking Deportivo Nacional

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SV Trupial scored in 56% of their last 18 games.

Deportivo Nacional let in goals in 74% of their last 35 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

SV Trupial went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Deportivo Nacional lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

9 Points in last 5 62
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 2.13
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Britannia18131459:1640
2Estrella18114346:2037
3Racing Club Aruba18111642:2034
4La Fama1895436:1832
5River Plate1895436:2132
6Deportivo Nacional1867527:2525
7SV Dakota1856726:3321
8Sport Boys18441011:4416
9SV Trupial18231313:519
10Jong Aruba18121517:655