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Svay Rieng vs Manila Digger

Asia Asia

AFC Challenge League 2025/2026 Morodok Techo National Stadium, Phnom Penh
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Tiago Alves
4'
Gai P. O.
10'
Fujii R.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-1. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Svay Rieng
20%
Draws
40%
Manila Digger
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Manila Digger come out ahead of Svay Rieng on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Manila Digger arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Svay Rieng Clean Sheet 10%
Manila Digger Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Svay Rieng Manila Digger
Matches Played 31 34
Wins 17 23
Draws 8 8
Losses 6 3
Goals Scored 2.23 3.53
Goals Conceded 1.26 0.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 16, 2026 AFC Challenge League
Manila Digger vs Svay Rieng
0:3
Apr 9, 2026 AFC Challenge League
Svay Rieng vs Manila Digger
1:1
Nov 1, 2025 AFC Challenge League
Manila Digger vs Svay Rieng
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Svay Rieng Compare

Top Goalscorer Tiago Alves
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Manila Digger Compare

Top Goalscorer Gai P. O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Svay Rieng 30 / 100
Manila Digger 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Svay Rieng Manila Digger

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Svay Rieng scored in 94% of their last 31 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Svay Rieng stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Manila Digger has conceded goals in 53% of their last 34 outings.

Scoring Trends

Svay Rieng VS Manila Digger
2.88 Goals Scored 1.88
2 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Svay Rieng

(Home)
20 Sept
Dangkor Senchey
1 : 1
Svay Rieng
17 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 0
Svay Rieng
12 Sept
Svay Rieng
4 : 0
Tiffy Army
06 Sept
Kirivong Sok Sen Chey
0 : 3
Svay Rieng
30 Aug
Svay Rieng
2 : 1
Visakha
Page 1 of 7

Manila Digger

(Away)
20 Sept
Stallion
0 : 3
Manila Digger
12 Sept
Kasuka
1 : 4
Manila Digger
04 Sept
Manila Digger
5 : 1
Kasuka
31 Aug
Persib Bandung
1 : 0
Manila Digger
30 May
Manila Digger
1 : 1
Taguig
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Al Ansar 0
Muras United 3
Al-Shabab 3
Al Kuwait 5
Svay Rieng 6
Phnom Penh Crown 2
Dewa United 2
Manila Digger 3
Semi-finals
Muras United 1
Al Kuwait 2
Svay Rieng 4
Manila Digger 1
Final
Al Kuwait 4
Svay Rieng 3