Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Swansea vs Plymouth

England England

EFL Cup 2025/2026 Swansea.com Stadium
Tue, Aug 26, 2025
2 - 1
06:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Swansea play Plymouth in the EFL Cup 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Swansea averaged 1.41 goals scored and 1.21 conceded. Plymouth averaged 2.16 goals scored and 1.35 conceded. In past meetings, Swansea won 4, Plymouth won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Aug 26, 2025 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Swansea and 1.81 for Plymouth. This points to a Plymouth double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Swansea
15%
Draws
43%
Plymouth
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Plymouth

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Swansea picked up more points recently compared to Plymouth.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 63%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 63%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62%
Swansea Clean Sheet 11%
Plymouth Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Swansea Plymouth
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 14 19
Draws 5 6
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 1.41 2.16
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.35
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 26, 2025 EFL Cup
Swansea vs Plymouth
2:1
Apr 9, 2025 Championship
Swansea vs Plymouth
3:0
Dec 10, 2024 Championship
Plymouth vs Swansea
1:2
Feb 3, 2024 Championship
Swansea vs Plymouth
0:1
Oct 7, 2023 Championship
Plymouth vs Swansea
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Swansea Compare

Top Goalscorer Vipotnik Z.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Plymouth Compare

Top Goalscorer Wiredu B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Swansea 40 / 100
Plymouth 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Swansea Plymouth

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Plymouth or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23.5%
2.94
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.3%
1.75
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Swansea attacking → ← attacking Plymouth

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Swansea scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Plymouth let in goals in 74% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Swansea went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Plymouth lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 63
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 2.00
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00