Sport Picks
Swansea vs Stoke City Prediction & H2H Stats
England
Championship 2025/2026 Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea 
Match Events
23'
23'
Thomas S.
30'
30'
Cisse L.
34'
34'
Ronald
AI Match Summary
Swansea in this Championship 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Swansea.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
35%
20%
45%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Stoke City
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Swansea have won more games recently than Stoke City.
- Model gives Swansea a 35% chance of winning this.
- European nights carry their own weight — this Championship 2025/2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Swansea Clean Sheet 68%
Stoke City Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Swansea | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 14 | 9 |
| Draws | 7 | 6 |
| Losses | 9 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.37 | 1.23 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.2 | 1.57 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 15, 2026 Championship
Stoke City vs Swansea
1:2
Mar 7, 2026 Championship
Swansea vs Stoke City
2:0
Dec 13, 2025 Championship
Stoke City vs Swansea
2:1
Feb 15, 2025 Championship
Stoke City vs Swansea
3:1
Oct 5, 2024 Championship
Swansea vs Stoke City
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Swansea Compare
Top Goalscorer Vipotnik Z.
1 Goals Assists Leader Cullen L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Stoke City Compare
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Swansea 50 / 100
Stoke City 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Swansea Stoke City
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Swansea Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Stoke City's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.
Attacking prowess: Swansea scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.
H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.
Swansea has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Swansea VS Stoke City
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Swansea
(Home) 19 Sept
Lincoln City
1 : 2 Swansea
12 Sept
Swansea
3 : 1 Burnley
08 Sept
Southampton
3 : 1 Swansea
05 Sept
Swansea
0 : 0 Wrexham
01 Sept
Swansea
2 : 0 Watford
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Swansea
3 : 1 Burnley
05 Sept
Swansea
0 : 0 Wrexham
01 Sept
Swansea
2 : 0 Watford
22 Aug
Swansea
0 : 0 Sheffield Utd
08 Aug
Swansea
0 : 1 Birmingham
Page 1 of 4
Stoke City
(Away) 19 Sept
Stoke City
2 : 1 Sheffield Utd
12 Sept
Watford
1 : 2 Stoke City
08 Sept
Cardiff
1 : 1 Stoke City
05 Sept
Stoke City
4 : 0 Charlton
01 Sept
Stoke City
1 : 0 Norwich
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Watford
1 : 2 Stoke City
08 Sept
Cardiff
1 : 1 Stoke City
29 Aug
Wolves
4 : 1 Stoke City
22 Aug
Southampton
3 : 1 Stoke City
18 Jul
Crewe
1 : 1 Stoke City
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coventry | 46 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 97:45 | 95 |
| 2 | Ipswich | 46 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 80:47 | 84 |
| 3 | Millwall | 46 | 24 | 11 | 11 | 64:49 | 83 |
| 4 | Southampton | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 82:56 | 80 |
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 72:47 | 80 |
| 6 | Hull City | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 70:66 | 73 |
| 7 | Wrexham | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69:65 | 71 |
| 8 | Derby | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 67:59 | 69 |
| 9 | Norwich | 46 | 19 | 8 | 19 | 63:56 | 65 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 57:56 | 64 |
| 11 | Swansea | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 57:59 | 64 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 59:59 | 62 |
| 13 | Sheffield Utd | 46 | 18 | 6 | 22 | 66:66 | 60 |
| 14 | Preston | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 55:62 | 60 |
| 15 | QPR | 46 | 16 | 10 | 20 | 61:73 | 58 |
| 16 | Watford | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 53:65 | 57 |
| 17 | Stoke City | 46 | 15 | 10 | 21 | 51:56 | 55 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 46 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 49:64 | 55 |
| 19 | Charlton | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 44:58 | 53 |
| 20 | Blackburn | 46 | 13 | 13 | 20 | 42:56 | 52 |
| 21 | West Brom | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 48:58 | 51 |
| 22 | Oxford Utd | 46 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 45:59 | 47 |
| 23 | Leicester | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 58:68 | 46 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wed | 46 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 29:89 | 0 |
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - League One (Main)
